885
FXUS63 KUNR 142332
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
432 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front moves through tonight bringing lower temperatures
  for the weekend along with the possibility of some precipitation

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Friday)
Issued at 126 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

20z surface analysis had cold front over northern MT/ND with a
couple of surface troughs slicing through the CWA. Gusty
west/southwest winds over southern SD. Water vapour loop showed
upper trough over southwest Canada/MT heading toward the northern
Plains with an upper low off the CA coast. These features the main
concerns.

Tonight/Saturday, upper trough pushes cold front through the CWA
with limited moisture, but low PoPs warranted in the
north/northwest closest to the best forcing. Few breezy spots
behind the front Saturday, but forecast soundings aren`t excited
about much. Temperatures will be near guidance and noticeably
cooler for Saturday, but still above normal.

Sunday/Monday, upper low off the CA coast eventually ejects into
the northern Plains, but with lesser scope. Moisture return ahead
of it looks decent, but QG-forcing/frontogenesis focuses
east/south of the CWA for better QPF chances. Temperatures slide
back to normal by Monday as cold air advection behind system and
cloud cover conspire.

The rest of next week should be seasonally cool, but still a few
degrees above normal as weak disturbances slip through the
northern plains under mean upper split-flow regime.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued At 429 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. A dry
cold front is moving through the region this evening and shifting
southwest winds to northwesterly.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 126 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

Gusty west/southwest winds over southern SD have combined with
minimum relative humidities in the teens to produce critical fire
weather conditions this afternoon. Conditions will rapidly improve
after 5pm, so no changes to the current forecast expected. A cold
front tonight will bring fire weather relief for the weekend.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon for
     SDZ322-325-326-332>335.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Helgeson
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...Helgeson