254
FXUS63 KUNR 081953
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1253 PM MST Fri Nov 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Upper low will bring widespread precipitation to the eastern
  2/3rds of forecast zones tonight into Saturday night
- Mild and dry Sunday and Monday
- Gusty west/northwest winds and a bit of light precipitation
  Tuesday and Wednesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Friday)
Issued at 1230 PM MST Fri Nov 8 2024

Water vapor shows upper low over northeast NM with ridge extending
through the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains. At the surface,
weak trof across northeast WY and southwest SD. Precip shield
associated with the upper low has lifted to along and just north
of I-80 across NEB and southeast WY.

Upper low will lift northeast through eastern CO and far western
KS tonight, across NEB on Saturday, and finally into the upper
midwest by Sunday. Rain will continue to lift northward tonight,
reaching our far southern zones by mid evening and across at least
eastern 2/3rds of zones by Saturday morning. Rain will continue
for much of the day Saturday before ending from west to east
Saturday night. Due to the warm nature of the system mainly liquid
precip is forecast, with the exception of some rain/snow mix
possibility across higher elevations of northeast WY and the
Black Hills. No snow accums are expected. Not much has changed
with respect to qpf totals, with moderate to high confidence
(40-70%) confidence for more than 0.5 inches across parts of
southwest/south-central SD. The rest of western SD (with the
exception of far northwest) has a 40-70% chance for more than 0.25
inches. Lesser amounts further north and west, although there
will likely be some banding across northeast WY and northwest SD
that could result in localized higher amounts.

Mainly dry and mild weather then expected Sunday/Monday.
Progressive trof moves through Tuesday/Wednesday with some light
precip in areas, but gusty west/northwest winds could be more of
an issue. Upper ridge then builds in for the end of next week for
dry and mild weather, although there is some possibility of a
backdoor front knocking temps down a bit.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Saturday)
Issued At 952 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2024

VFR conditions are expected through most of the forecast period.
Chances for -RA (with some -SN over the Black Hills) and
associated MVFR/IFR conditions will increase through the evening
into the overnight hours across south central SD, southwestern SD,
and parts of northeastern WY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Johnson
AVIATION...Wong