Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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576 FXUS63 KUNR 220514 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1014 PM MST Thu Nov 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry through Saturday. Mild temperatures for much of the area. - Breezy and cooler Sunday with a chance (20-30%) of light snow. - Unsettled with below average temperatures heading into the Thanksgiving Holiday. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Thursday) Issued at 1207 PM MST Thu Nov 21 2024 Water vapor shows upper ridge pushing out of the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains. At the surface, ridge is over the Dakotas with return flow in our western zones. Mostly sunny skies early this afternoon with temps in the 30s/40s. Upper ridge will bring dry and generally mild temps both Friday and Saturday. The exception will be a little cooler temps across northwestern SD on Saturday as a backdoor front moves in late Friday and Friday night. There could be some low stratus/fog with this backdoor front which could lead to even cooler temps across northwest SD Saturday. An upper trof will knock down the ridge on Sunday with a cold front moving through the area. Gusty northwest winds expected with the front, probably not quite to advisory criteria, but gusty nonetheless. A bit of light snow may fall with the front Sunday into Sunday night, but any accumulations look to be negligible given lack of moisture. Zonal flow is expected early to mid week with relatively cold temps expected. Embedded impulses in the flow may bring some chances for light snow with only minor accumulations expected at this time. Flow looks to become more northwest towards Thanksgiving and may lead to even colder weather for the tail end of the week and weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Friday Night) Issued At 1014 PM MST Thu Nov 21 2024 VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Johnson AVIATION...Pojorlie