860
FXUS63 KUNR 081654
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
954 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Upper low will bring light precipitation tonight and Saturday
- Mild and mostly dry Sunday through much of next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Thursday)
Issued at 1235 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2024

07z surface analysis had amorphous high over the CWA with clear
skies except for some mid-clouds near the NE border. Water vapour
loop had upper low over western NM with weakening ridge over the
CWA. Effect of low main forecast concern.

Today will be pleasant with increasing clouds as upper low moves
to the OK panhandle. Temperatures will be near guidance.

Tonight/Saturday, upper low moves into southern MN by 12z Sunday
with surface low following suit as system becomes stacked.
QG/frontogenetic forcing modest with QPF quickly developing this
evening, exiting the CWA Saturday night. Guidance in good
agreement with best pops east of the Black Hills. LREF/HREF depict
0.1-0.25" (locally 0.50") QPF over much of the CWA ranging from
>50% chance of >0.1" over northeastern WY to 80% chance of 0.5"
over south-central SD. System won`t have much cold air to work
with given forecast soundings. Best chance of light snow over the
Black Hills. Temperatures will be near guidance, but perhaps a
bit lower east of the Black Hills Saturday afternoon per rain/low
clouds.

Sunday through next week, progressive upper flow expected as a
series of moisture-starved upper troughs traverse the northern
plains. While light QPF cannot be ruled out, most folks won`t see
much. Temperatures will average 5-15F above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Saturday)
Issued At 952 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2024

VFR conditions are expected through most of the forecast period.
Chances for -RA (with some -SN over the Black Hills) and
associated MVFR/IFR conditions will increase through the evening
into the overnight hours across south central SD, southwestern SD,
and parts of northeastern WY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Helgeson
AVIATION...Wong