785
FXUS63 KUNR 040446
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1046 PM MDT Tue Jun 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chances (15-25%) for a few showers and a thunderstorm or two
  to develop over the Black Hills later this afternoon and
  evening.

- Chance (50-70%) for showers and maybe a few thunderstorms for
  Wednesday and Thursday.

- Warming trend through the weekend with highs 5-10F above average
  (upper 70s to 80s)

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1258 PM MDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Current visible satellite shows CU field over the region as upper
level trof axis swings through the Northern Plains. Temperatures
are mild, hovering at around 60 for the western SD plains while
temperatures in northeastern WY and the Black Hills are in the
50s. Unsettled cyclonic flow overhead may support a few showers
(and maybe a few lightning strikes) over the Black Hills this
afternoon and evening.

Weak shortwave crosses the southern half of the CWA tomorrow and
will bring clouds, rain showers (maybe a few storms), and cool
temperatures to the CWA. Highs will be in the low to mid 60s.
Another shortwave moves through on Thursday. This system looks to
be slightly stronger but again, aside from cloudy skies, rain
showers, and a few storms, am not expecting much impactful weather
from this system. In terms of precip, LREF probs depict 70-90+%
chances for 0.25+" total QPF (for Wed/Thu) over the southern tier
of the CWA (primarily across the Black Hills and along and south
of I-90) with lower probs north of I-90. With weak buoyancy and
low shear, severe weather isn`t a concern at this time.

Ridge builds over the west coast late in the week which will
support a warming trend for the CWA and highs around 5-10F above
average as a result. Recent deterministic GFS runs point at low
chances for showers and maybe a few storms over northwestern SD
Saturday afternoon and evening as an upper low passes to the north
of the region and an attendant sfc trof/weak front crosses the
CWA. However, Canadian and ECMWF runs have been fairly consistent
in keeping convection further east of the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued At 1045 PM MDT Tue Jun 3 2025

VFR conditions expected through tonight. Showers will move into
northeastern WY/Black Hills/far southwestern SD overnight into
Wednesday morning with associated LCL MVFR conditions.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Wong
AVIATION...Dye