249
FXUS63 KUNR 150425
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1025 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures continue for the rest of the week and into the
  weekend.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will continue
  daily.

- Low end chances for isolated thunderstorms over the Black Hills
  beginning Thursday, better chances for scattered thunderstorms
  over the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

No significant changes made to the forecast. Upper level ridge
will continue to bring hot temperatures to the FA through the
rest of the week. Weak trough will settle into the area Thur with
LL moisture increasing. This will support TS chances over the
Black Hills during the afternoon Thur-Sat as conditional
instability increases. Ridge will flatten later this weekend,
with TS chances returning to parts of the FA into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1219 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

A large upper level area of high pressure continues to dominate
the weather as this high pressure continues to center over the
Central Plains, with the surface high pressure situated over Iowa.
Underneath this area of high pressure, skies are clear and
temperatures will continue to climb to over 100F. This trend will
continue into Wednesday before we begin to see a breakdown of the
high pressure and eastern Wyoming and western South Dakota become
influenced by the western periphery of this system where monsoonal
moisture is being pulled up from the Desert southwest all the way
up into western Montana.

As this trend continues into Thursday we could see enough mid
level moisture associated with the monsoon creep into our area
and initiate some isolated (1 or 2 storms) over the terrain in the
Black Hills. These storms will pose a dry lightning and strong
downburst wind threat and produced little to no rainfall. These
type of storms will also keep the fire threat high throughout the
rest of the week.

Looking ahead into the weekend models keep us under the influence
of a thermal ridge that will once again keep much of our region in
the triple digit heat. This trend will need to be monitored for
the extension of Heat Highlights.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued At 1024 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ Thursday for SDZ001-002-
     012>014-025>027-030>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>078.
WY...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Thursday for WYZ054>056-058>060.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JC
DISCUSSION...Woodward
AVIATION...13