011
FXUS63 KUNR 250910
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
210 AM MST Mon Nov 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cornucopia of moisture-starved shortwaves this week
- Chilly air for end of the forecast

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Sunday)
Issued at 208 AM MST Mon Nov 25 2024

09z surface analysis had ridge over the CWA with a patch of
stratus from Rapid City to Pine Ridge. Otherwise, mostly starry
skies prevail with some refreshingly chilly temperatures. Water
vapour loop had upper trough exiting the CWA over the eastern
Dakotas with shortwave ridge building behind it over the northern
Rockies.

Today through Tuesday, transient shortwave ridge moves through
the northern plains bringing warmer temperatures to the southwest
half of the CWA. Southeasterly low level return flow will retard
highs for the plains east and north of the Black Hills, although
most places should be near guidance.

Tuesday afternoon/night, shortwave trough moves through the CWA with
140kt jet streak ahead of it. Weak QG-forcing will be wasted with
meager moisture availability. Chance of >0.02" QPF low with most
folks missing out. Temperatures will be near guidance.

Wednesday through next weekend, a series of moisture-starved
shortwaves will zip through the area per perturbed northwest flow
aloft. Chance of 0.1" total QPF around 50% over the northwest
third of the CWA with <50% elsewhere. Best chances given pattern
suggest the northern Black Hills could get in on some upslope
action. Eventually, colder air becomes established with moderate
confidence in temperatures 10-20F below normal for Friday through
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued At 1008 PM MST Sun Nov 24 2024

VFR conds through the period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Helgeson
AVIATION...JC