539
FXUS63 KUNR 072033
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
233 PM MDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance for showers and a few thunderstorms later Tuesday into
  Wednesday

- Elevated fire weather latter half of the week

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Monday)
Issued at 210 PM MDT Mon Apr 7 2025



Current upper air models show upper ridge over the lee side of
the Rockies into the northern and central plains, and an upper
trough digging into the PAC NW. Surface charts depict high
pressure centered over eastern ND this afternoon. Winds are
currently breezy out of the southeast, with temperatures in the
50s to mid-60s.

Upper ridge slides over the FA early Tuesday and begins to flatten
out as a shortwave makes its way across MT and into ND. Associated
frontal boundary expected to enter the FA during the day Tuesday
and make its way across the area, generating some showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms. CAPE values generally get into the
100-300 j/Kg range with modest 0-6km shear 30-40 kts. Severe
storms unlikely, however inverted-V soundings may allow for some
stray strong to severe gusts during the afternoon and early
evening. Showers are expected to persist overnight into Wednesday.
The higher elevation Black Hills could potentially see some light
snow with little to no accumulations in the colder hours of the
night, while everywhere else can expect just rain. Much of the FA
can expect measurable precipitation, with HREF probability of
0.1" 24hr QPF painting a wide swath of 40-70 percent from
northeastern WY through the northern hills and into central SD
through Wednesday afternoon.

Precipitation exits the region later Wednesday, and dry conditions
are then expected the remainder of the week. Upper ridge once
again builds over the western CONUS Wednesday night, making its
way over the Rockies and into the northern plains by Friday,
sparking a warming trend over the weekend. Highs climb into the
70s by Friday and may even see some 80s on Saturday, prompting
elevated fire conditions the latter half of the week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued At 1146 AM MDT Mon Apr 7 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye
AVIATION...Dye