021
FXUS63 KUNR 081942
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
142 PM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild and mostly dry weather persists through the week.
- Breezy conditions persist today and again Friday into the
  weekend.
- Upper level trough and cold front will bring precipitation
  chances and cooler temperatures this weekend into early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday)
Issued at 141 PM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Upper level analysis shows ridging over the central US with
southwesterly flow aloft across the western half of the country.
Upper level high pressure continues to build across TX and the
southern Plains. Surface high pressure is centered over northern
WI with a tight surface pressure gradient over the Northern
Plains. Strong southerly winds have developed across the forecast
area under a stout low-level jet. Sustained southerly winds 20-30
mph with gusts to 45 mph will continue this afternoon and evening
across south-central SD. While transient wind advisory criteria
are expected, will hold off on any wind headlines. The NBM
continues to highlight potential for 50+ mph gusts, although
forecast soundings are not overly impressive. Will continue to
monitor and update should things change.

Upper ridging will persist with above average temperatures and
generally dry conditions through Thursday. A northern stream
shortwave will drop into the Upper Midwest early Friday with a
cool front pushing through the area, although temperatures will
remain in the 60s and 70s. Monsoon moisture will stream into the
area coupled with weak perturbations in the southwest flow Friday,
resulting in chance of showers during the day Friday, although
precipitation amounts will be meager.

Shortwave ridging returns Saturday with temperatures warming to
near 80 across the lower elevations. Potential exists for highs
into the mid 80s, although cloud cover will limit surface heating.
A deep Pacific trough will push through the northwest Friday into
the weekend along with another cold front, bringing active weather
late Saturday through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Thursday)
Issued At 1120 AM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025

VFR conditions through the forecast period. Gusty southerly winds
with gusts over 35 kts should diminish by 00Z.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...SE
AVIATION...Smith