616
FXUS63 KUNR 070443
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1043 PM MDT Tue May 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active weather continues through Wednesday

- Mostly dry the latter half of the week with a warming trend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday)
Issued at 207 PM MDT Tue May 6 2025

Current surface chart depicts the frontal boundary running through
western MN down into central and western NE this afternoon. Water
Vapor and upper air models show upper trough and low over the four
corners region. Shortwave sits over the western half of the CWA in
northeastern Wy and the Black Hills area, prompting some isolated
showers/storms on radar. Winds are currently breezy out of the
north to northeast, with temperatures in the 30s and 40s over
northeastern WY, while further east temperatures are in the 50s
and 60s.

Ongoing precipitation will dwindle this evening as we lose daytime
heating, though south central SD may have some continuing evening
showers near the boundary. Over the next 24 hours the upper
trough slides east towards the central and southern plains. Most
areas will be dry on Wednesday, however low level convergence over
the Black Hills coupled with daytime heating may spark some
isolated showers/storms late morning into the afternoon. Weak
shear and instability will negate any severe potential. Thursday
into the weekend upper ridge builds back over the western CONUS,
prompting a warming trend. Deterministic models show 850mb temps
reaching to the mid and upper 20s C by Sunday. A couple weak
impulses do move through the region, however limited moisture and
low confidence on any track or timing of potential light
precipitation. Towards the end of the forecast period, southwest
flow sets up aloft as the ridge moves east and troughing digs into
the western CONUS, prompting a potentially more active period by
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued At 1042 PM MDT Tue May 6 2025

Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions due to low CIGS and fog will
continue tonight across northeastern WY and portions of the Black
Hills. Improvement to VFR is expected through the day Wednesday.
Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected through the forecast
period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye
AVIATION...13