135
FXUS63 KUNR 102031
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
231 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Areas of smoke and haze today and tomorrow for western SD

-Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon across the Black Hills

-Hot temperatures expected by midweek

-Elevated fire weather concerns developing, southwestern SD

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Sunday)
Issued at 140 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

We are tracking a small localized vorticity lobe that is
pinwheeling through eastern Wyoming. Out ahead of this area some
terrain influenced convective initiation has occurred across the
Black Hills with most the activity slowly moving east. Concern
will be for some small hail and lightning strikes. Much of the
convection will dissipate by the evening hours. The main weather
feature has been this upper trough that is responsible for
bringing down the smoke from the northwest. This upper trough will
continue to move to the east but we will hang on to the northwest
flow through Monday which will mean another round of smoke for the
region.

As we progress into Monday a weak wave will drop down from the
north and push a weak surface front through the region tomorrow
afternoon. This will help sweep out some of the smoke and could be
the catalyst to kickoff some afternoon thunderstorm chances over
northwestern SD. Tuesday will be the coolest day of the weak as
the post frontal environment will be entrenched across the region,
but we will be tracking the ridge axis become more dominant across
the four corners and this feature will be the main weather driver
come midweek for western SD and eastern WY. Temperatures are
progged to warm well into the 90s with triple digit readings
likely over the eastern Plains for Wednesday and Thursday. We then
turn our attention to Friday where the pattern shifts toward a
more active pattern that could bring more organized showers and
thunderstorms to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday)
Issued At 1107 AM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Intermittent MVFR VIS may be possible across the KRAP terminal
through 02z from HZ and FU. Confidence is low for the development
of thunderstorms this afternoon with lower concerns for impacts
from any storms that may develop.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Woodward
AVIATION...Woodward