Extended Streamflow Prediction
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594
FGUS63 KKRF 111528
ESPUMO
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1207 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2025
********************************************************
**** THESE 90 DAY FORECASTS ARE PRODUCED WITH HEFS ****
**** AND COMPARE TO TRADITIONAL ESP AND HISTORICAL ****
********************************************************
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT ESP, HEFS, AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR
NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR
FLOODSTAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
HEFS VALUES INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD
CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
ESP VALUES INDICATE THE ESP PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD
CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF ESP OR HEFS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF ESP
OR HEFS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL
IS LOWER THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR | HEFS ESP HS |HEFS ESP HS |HEFS ESP HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:BIG HOLE R AT MELROSE MT
MLRM8 6.0 7.5 8.0 | <5 <5 15 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:BEAVERHEAD R AT TWIN BRIDGES MT
TWNM8 7.0 8.0 9.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:JEFFERSON R AT TWIN BRIDGES MT 5N
TWIM8 10.0 11.0 12.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:JEFFERSON R AT THREE FORKS MT 3NW
TFKM8 8.0 8.5 9.0 | <5 <5 17 | <5 <5 10 | <5 <5 <5
:GALLATIN R AT GALLATIN GTWY MT 7S
GLGM8 6.0 7.0 7.5 | <5 <5 14 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:GALLATIN R AT LOGAN MT 1W
LOGM8 9.0 10.0 11.0 | <5 <5 24 | <5 <5 11 | <5 <5 <5
:MISSOURI R AT TOSTON MT
TOSM8 10.5 11.0 12.0 | <5 <5 15 | <5 <5 14 | <5 <5 <5
:DEARBORN R AT CRAIG MT 11NW
DBRM8 6.5 8.0 11.0 | <5 <5 9 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:SMITH R AT ULM MT 8SE
ULLM8 9.0 12.0 15.0 | <5 <5 6 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:MISSOURI R AT ULM MT 6E
ULMM8 13.5 15.0 17.0 | <5 <5 10 | <5 <5 6 | <5 <5 <5
:SUN R AT SIMMS MT 1N
SSRM8 7.5 8.5 10.5 | <5 <5 6 | <5 <5 5 | <5 <5 <5
:MUDDY CR AT VAUGHN MT
MDYM8 12.0 16.0 25.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:SUN R AT VAUGHN MT 3SE
VAUM8 6.0 8.0 9.0 | <5 <5 6 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:MISSOURI R AT FT BENTON MT
FBNM8 13.5 15.0 17.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:TETON R AT DUTTON MT 10NE
DTTM8 9.0 0.0 0.0 | <5 <5 <5 | NA NA NA | NA NA NA
:MARIAS R AT SHELBY 6S
SHLM8 9.0 13.0 15.0 | <5 6 20 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:MISSOURI R AT LANDUSKY MT 20S
LDKM8 27.0 29.0 33.0 | <5 <5 8 | <5 <5 5 | <5 <5 <5
:MUSSELSHELL R AT HARLOWTON MT 1SW
HLWM8 7.0 0.0 0.0 | <5 <5 11 | NA NA NA | NA NA NA
:MUSSELSHELL R AT SHAWMUT MT
SHAM8 8.0 0.0 0.0 | <5 <5 11 | NA NA NA | NA NA NA
:MUSSELSHELL R AT LAVINA MT 1S
LVNM8 9.5 0.0 0.0 | <5 <5 9 | NA NA NA | NA NA NA
:MUSSELSHELL R AT ROUNDUP MT 2SW
RUPM8 10.0 10.5 11.0 | <5 <5 9 | <5 <5 8 | <5 <5 7
:MUSSELSHELL R AT MUSSELSHELL MT
MUSM8 11.0 11.5 12.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:MUSSELSHELL R AT MOSBY MT
MSBM8 10.0 12.0 14.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
HEFS = HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICE SIMULATION (CURRENT)
ESP = CONDITIONAL ESP SIMULATION (CURRENT)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--HEFS EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 0315 Z DH12 /DC2503110507/DVD90/HGVFPXT/HGVFPX9/HGVFPXH
.B1 /HGVFPX5/HGVFPXG/HGVFPX1/HGVFPXF
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:BIG HOLE R
MLRM8 2.4/ 3.0/ 3.3/ 4.4/ 4.1/ 4.5/ 5.1/
:BEAVERHEAD R
TWNM8 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.4/ 4.9/ 4.8/ 5.2/ 5.3/
:JEFFERSON R
TWIM8 4.0/ 4.5/ 4.8/ 6.3/ 6.0/ 6.5/ 7.2/
TFKM8 3.7/ 4.2/ 4.3/ 5.5/ 5.4/ 6.1/ 6.6/
:GALLATIN R
GLGM8 2.0/ 2.8/ 3.1/ 4.0/ 3.9/ 4.5/ 4.8/
LOGM8 5.5/ 5.6/ 6.0/ 7.4/ 7.1/ 7.6/ 8.0/
:MISSOURI R
TOSM8 4.5/ 4.9/ 5.2/ 7.1/ 6.6/ 7.8/ 8.3/
:DEARBORN R
DBRM8 3.1/ 3.2/ 3.6/ 4.6/ 4.3/ 5.1/ 6.2/
:SMITH R
ULLM8 2.8/ 3.7/ 4.1/ 5.1/ 4.8/ 5.4/ 6.1/
:MISSOURI R
ULMM8 3.2/ 3.4/ 3.7/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.7/ 5.5/
:SUN R
SSRM8 2.6/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 4.2/ 3.6/ 5.1/ 6.2/
:MUDDY CR
MDYM8 5.9/ 6.0/ 6.1/ 6.6/ 6.5/ 7.0/ 8.8/
:SUN R
VAUM8 2.6/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 3.7/ 3.3/ 4.1/ 4.9/
:MISSOURI R
FBNM8 2.2/ 2.4/ 2.6/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.7/ 4.5/
:TETON R
DTTM8 2.6/ 3.1/ 3.3/ 4.3/ 4.1/ 5.2/ 6.8/
:MARIAS R
SHLM8 3.3/ 3.9/ 4.5/ 6.7/ 6.5/ 8.3/ 8.8/
:MISSOURI R
LDKM8 13.5/ 14.0/ 14.8/ 16.5/ 16.3/ 18.0/ 19.5/
:MUSSELSHELL R
HLWM8 2.5/ 2.6/ 2.8/ 4.1/ 4.0/ 4.2/ 4.6/
SHAM8 2.7/ 3.1/ 3.5/ 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.4/ 5.6/
LVNM8 1.7/ 2.1/ 2.5/ 4.0/ 3.9/ 4.4/ 4.6/
RUPM8 1.9/ 2.1/ 3.0/ 4.2/ 4.1/ 4.2/ 4.7/
MUSM8 2.1/ 2.3/ 3.1/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.5/ 4.9/
MSBM8 3.1/ 3.2/ 3.6/ 4.5/ 4.4/ 4.9/ 5.2/
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--HEFS NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 0315 Z DH12 /DC2503110507/DVD90/HGVFPNT/HGVFPN9/HGVFPNH
.B1 /HGVFPN5/HGVFPNG/HGVFPN1/HGVFPNF
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:BIG HOLE R
MLRM8 2.0/ 1.8/ 1.6/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.1/ 0.9/
:BEAVERHEAD R
TWNM8 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/
:JEFFERSON R
TWIM8 3.7/ 3.6/ 3.5/ 3.1/ 3.2/ 2.5/ 1.8/
TFKM8 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.0/ 1.5/ 1.7/ 1.3/ 1.3/
:GALLATIN R
GLGM8 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/
LOGM8 5.3/ 5.2/ 4.9/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/
:MISSOURI R
TOSM8 4.4/ 4.2/ 4.1/ 3.2/ 3.3/ 3.0/ 2.0/
:DEARBORN R
DBRM8 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/
:SMITH R
ULLM8 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.1/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.7/
:MISSOURI R
ULMM8 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.6/ 2.5/
:SUN R
SSRM8 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/
:MUDDY CR
MDYM8 2.9/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7/
:SUN R
VAUM8 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 1.9/ 1.9/
:MISSOURI R
FBNM8 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 1.9/ 2.0/ 1.9/ 1.9/
:TETON R
DTTM8 0.0/ 0.0/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/
:MARIAS R
SHLM8 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.3/ 2.3/
:MISSOURI R
LDKM8 13.1/ 13.1/ 13.0/ 12.8/ 12.9/ 12.7/ 12.6/
:MUSSELSHELL R
HLWM8 0.0/ 0.0/ 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/
SHAM8 0.0/ 0.0/ 1.7/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/
LVNM8 0.0/ 0.0/ 1.5/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.2/ 1.2/
RUPM8 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.7/ 1.4/ 1.5/ 1.4/ 1.3/
MUSM8 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.0/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.7/ 1.6/
MSBM8 3.1/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 2.6/ 2.7/ 2.5/ 2.5/
.END
$$