955
FNUS75 KTWC 150329
FWSTWC

Spot Forecast for investigation...TIFIC
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
829 PM MST Thu Aug 14 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 MST on August 15.

.DISCUSSION...

Early Friday morning will start with a slight chance of a shower or
thunderstorm near the forecast site as there may be residual isolated
activity from the overnight period lingering through the early morning hours.
Then thunderstorm activity should increase in the afternoon, with isolated
cells initially from noon to 1400, then becoming increasingly scattered through
the late afternoon. Winds will generally be light and terrain driven, but gusty
and erratic winds of 35-45 mph will be possible with any thunderstorm. Periods
of heavy rainfall will be likely with any storm. Activity should become more isolated
after 1900, with a slight chance remaining through the overnight hours. Saturday
morning begins with a slight chance of a thunderstorm, then scattered activity in the
afternoon and evening hours.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny in the morning with a slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms. Becoming mostly
cloudy in the afternoon with thunderstorms likely,
especially in the late afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent in the morning increasing to 60 percent
 by the late afternoon.
Max temperature.....72-75 degrees.
Min humidity........52-55 percent.
20-foot winds.......Downsloping southerly wind 4 to 7 mph through the
early morning, then becoming northerly upslope 5 to 10
mph in the late morning and afternoon. Gusty
                    and erratic winds possible near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......900 ft AGL increasing to 5000 ft AGL late in
                    the morning.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 9 knots.

TIME (MST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........51        53        69        89
Weather cov.....S CHC     S CHC     CHANCE    LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC     S CHC     CHANCE    LIKELY
CWR.............20        20        30        60
Temp............62        67        71        69
RH..............68        57        54        55
20 FT wind......S 7       SW 6G10   N  6G11   N 6G11
Mix hgt (ft)....BLW100    BLW100    2800      1700
Transport wind..S 9       S 7       SW 6      S 9

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms
in the evening, then a slight chance overnight.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent decreasing to 30 percent.
Min temperature.....59-62 degrees.
Max humidity........75-78 percent.
20-foot winds.......Becoming downslope southerly late in the evening.
Gusty and erratic winds possible near thunderstorms
in the evening.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 13 knots.

TIME (MST)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........83        84        59        59
Weather cov.....CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE    S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE    CHANCE    S CHC     S CHC
CWR.............50        40        20        10
Temp............67        64        63        61
RH..............62        66        70        74
20 FT wind......NE 6G10   S 8G12    S 8       S 8
Mix hgt (ft)....BLW100    BLW100    BLW100    BLW100
Transport wind..S 9       S 11      S 13      S 11

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the
                    morning. Chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent in the morning, increasing to 50 percent
in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....71-74 degrees.
Min humidity........51-54 percent.
20-foot winds.......South winds 6 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 8 to 12 mph in the afternoon. Gusty
                    and erratic winds possible near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL increasing to 4500 ft AGL late in
                    the morning.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 9 knots shifting to the west around
                    7 knots in the afternoon.

TIME (MST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........55        55        78        78
Weather cov.....CHANCE    CHANCE    LIKELY    LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........          S CHC     CHANCE    LIKELY
CWR.............20        20        30        50
Temp............61        65        68        70
RH..............75        67        59        53
20 FT wind......S 7G10    S 6G11    SW 5G10   SW 5G11
Mix hgt (ft)....BLW100    900       2900      2900
Transport wind..S 9       S 8       SW 7      W 7

$$
Forecaster...EDWARDS
Requested by...RUSSO
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2519956.0/TWC
.DELDT 08/14/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL AZTDC@FIRENET.GOV

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