Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
377
FNUS75 KTWC 121615
FWSTWC
Spot Forecast for Horsehead...AZ-DFFM
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
915 AM MST Sun Jul 12 2026
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0900 MST on July 12.
.DISCUSSION...Expect scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening with storms possible as early as 12pm-1pm. Some overnight
storms will be possible, but chances are low (20 percent). Monday
afternoon and evening will see another round of thunderstorms as
well. Main threats will be strong outflow winds to 45 mph, locally
heavy rainfall, and lightning. Outside of storms winds will be
easterly with morning and afternoon gusts 20 to 25 mph. Min RH will
be in the 20s with good overnight recoveries.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny then becoming mostly cloudy. Chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent increasing to 50 percent in the
afternoon.
Max temperature.....98-101 degrees.
Min humidity........23-26 percent.
20-foot winds.......East southeast winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts to
around 18 mph this morning and afternoon
shifting to the southwest late in the afternoon.
Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (24100 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
(143000 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3400 ft AGL increasing to 10200 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
Transport winds.....East 7 to 14 knots shifting to the southeast
around 11 knots late in the afternoon.
TIME (MST) 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........7 56 61
Weather cov..... S CHC CHANCE
Weather type....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ S CHC CHANCE
CWR.............0 20 50
Temp............87 94 96
RH..............39 29 25
20 FT wind......NE 4G10 E 6G14 E 7G16
Mix hgt (ft)....3400 10000 9100
Transport wind..E 7 E 11 SE 13
Vrate kt-ft/1K..24 110 119
Ventrate Cat....FAIR EXNT EXNT
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
evening, then slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms overnight.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent decreasing to 20 percent overnight.
Min temperature.....72-75 degrees.
Max humidity........63-66 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the
east after midnight. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (43800 knot-ft) decreasing to poor (3900
knot-ft).
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL decreasing to 500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 8 knots shifting to the west 5
to 8 knots in the evening, then shifting to the
east southeast around 8 knots overnight.
TIME (MST) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
Sky (%).........66 59 59 53
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
CWR.............50 40 30 20
Temp............93 83 79 75
RH..............30 45 56 61
20 FT wind......N 6G14 NW 5G10 E 6G12 E 6G10
Mix hgt (ft)....5500 800 600 600
Transport wind..SE 8 W 5 SE 7 E 8
Vrate kt-ft/1K..44 4 4 5
Ventrate Cat....GOOD POOR POOR POOR
.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny then becoming mostly cloudy.
Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent increasing to 60 percent after noon.
Max temperature.....95-98 degrees.
Min humidity........27-30 percent.
20-foot winds.......East southeast winds 8 to 13 mph with gusts to
around 25 mph through 3 PM, then 6 to 11 mph out
of the southeast. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5000 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (129100 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL increasing to 9900 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
Transport winds.....East 10 to 16 knots shifting to the southeast
around 9 knots late in the afternoon.
TIME (MST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........31 4 25 50
Weather cov..... S CHC CHANCE
Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ S CHC CHANCE
CWR.............0 0 20 50
Temp............73 86 92 95
RH..............64 43 34 28
20 FT wind......E 9G14 E 11G18 SE 10G19 SE 8G17
Mix hgt (ft)....500 4300 8500 9100
Transport wind..E 10 E 15 E 14 E 10
Vrate kt-ft/1K..5 64 118 91
Ventrate Cat....POOR GOOD EXNT VYGD
.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
Chance of showers and thunderstorms before
midnight.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent decreasing to 0 percent after midnight.
Min temperature.....73-76 degrees.
Max humidity........70-73 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southwest 5 to 8 mph through 7 PM, then shifting
to the east southeast 5 to 8 mph the rest of the
evening and overnight. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (26300 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
(3400 knot-ft) overnight.
Mixing height.......1100 ft AGL decreasing to 500 ft AGL late in
the evening.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 9 knots shifting to the south 5 to 6 knots
late in the evening, then to the east 6 to 10 knots
overnight.
TIME (MST) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
Sky (%).........71 67 53 40
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE
CWR.............60 30 10 0
Temp............90 82 79 76
RH..............40 54 63 67
20 FT wind......SW 6G11 SE 3G7 SE 4G6 E 4G6
Mix hgt (ft)....2900 1300 1500 500
Transport wind..SW 9 SE 4 SE 6 E 7
Vrate kt-ft/1K..26 5 9 4
Ventrate Cat....FAIR POOR MRGL POOR
$$
Forecaster...Hardin
Requested by...ADC
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2617262.0/TWC
.DELDT 07/12/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL aidclogistics@dffm.az.gov
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