390
FNUS75 KTWC 101947
FWSTWC

Spot Forecast for Gardner Pile Burn...USFS
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1247 PM MST Thu Sep 10 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 MST on September 11.

.DISCUSSION...A slight chance for showers and storms on both Friday
and Saturday with isolated to scattered coverage of storms anticipated
primarily during the afternoon and evening hours. The strongest storms
will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, gusty/erratic outflow winds
to around 45 mph, and frequent lightning. Outside of thunderstorms,
winds will be southwesterly at 5 to 10 mph becoming northwesterly with
gusts up to 20 mph. Minimum relative humidity will be around 40 to 45
percent with strong overnight recovery to around 80 to 85 percent.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Max temperature.....86-89 degrees.
Min humidity........41-44 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL increasing 5800 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon decreasing to 3600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 6 to 8 knots shifting to the
                    northwest 6 to 10 knots in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2500 knot-ft) increasing to
                    good (40700 knot-ft) in the afternoon.

TIME (MST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........36        31        52        61
Weather cov.....                    CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                    S CHC     CHANCE
CWR.............10        10        30        40
Temp............65        78        85        85
RH..............89        63        45        45
20 FT wind......SW 6G8    W 4G8     NW 6G11   W 7G14
Mix hgt (ft)....500       2500      5100      5100
Transport wind..SW 8      NW 7      NW 6      W 8
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4         18        31        41
Ventrate Cat....POOR      MRGL      FAIR      GOOD

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Min temperature.....64-67 degrees.
Max humidity........83-88 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 10 knots shifting to the southwest 5
                    to 9 knots in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Marginal (17400 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (8000 knot-ft) overnight.

TIME (MST)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........54        64        43        59
Weather cov.....CHANCE    S CHC     S CHC     S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE    S CHC     S CHC     S CHC
CWR.............30        20        10        20
Temp............79        72        68        66
RH..............55        70        82        87
20 FT wind......W 6G14    SW 6G10   SW 6G10   SW 5G7
Mix hgt (ft)....1700      800       500       500
Transport wind..W 10      S 9       SW 7      SW 7
Vrate kt-ft/1K..17        7         3         3
Ventrate Cat....MRGL      POOR      POOR      POOR

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Max temperature.....86-89 degrees.
Min humidity........45-48 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL increasing to 5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 4 to 5 knots shifting to the northwest 3
                    to 6 knots in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2500 knot-ft) increasing to
                    fair (22100 knot-ft) in the afternoon, then
decreasing to marginal (9100 knot-ft) late
        in the afternoon.

TIME (MST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........93        21        68        68
Weather cov.....                    CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                    S CHC     CHANCE
CWR.............10        10        50        50
Temp............65        75        85        85
RH..............92        69        47        46
20 FT wind......S 3G5     SW 2G5    NW 3G7    NW 4G11
Mix hgt (ft)....500       2100      5200      4300
Transport wind..S 5       SW 4      N 3       W 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..3         8         16        21
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      MRGL      FAIR

$$
Forecaster...Van Stratten
Requested by...Wes Gutweiler
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2621213.2/TWC
.DELDT 09/10/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL wesley.gutweiler@usda.gov

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