Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FNUS75 KTWC 191903
FWSTWC

Spot Forecast for IDA...USFS
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1203 PM MST Sat Jul 19 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1200 MST on July 19.


.DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery shows showers and thunderstorms
forming in the higher terrain of the Chiricahua Mountains in the vicinity
of the wildfire. Expect similar trends to continue through about 1500
before the bulk of the shower and thunderstorms push off the highest mountain peaks.
However, even later this afternoon and through this evening, there will be
continued shower and thunderstorm chances. Additional showers and thunderstorms
are expected once again Sunday. Expect gusty and erratic winds in/near any
thunderstorm activity.


.THIS AFTERNOON...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent increasing to 70 percent late in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....72-75 degrees.
Min humidity........47-50 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 9 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 5 to 8 mph after 1300. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......4400 ft AGL decreasing to 2400 ft AGL late in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North around 4 knots shifting to the northwest
                    5 to 6 knots in the afternoon.

TIME (MST)      5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A
Sky (%).........71  71  73  73  73  80
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
CWR.............60  60  60  60  60  70
Temp............69  69  71  72  71  70
RH..............56  55  51  48  50  50
20 FT wind dir..N   NW  SW  N   NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..4   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.8   10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...4.2 3.7 4.4 3.3 3.2 2.4
Transp wind dir.N   W   NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.4   5   5   5   5   6

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely
                    in the evening, then chance of rain showers and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms overnight.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent decreasing to 10 percent.
Min temperature.....58-61 degrees.
Max humidity........74-77 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 9 knots.

TIME (MST)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P
Sky (%).........80  80  72  79  78  69  69  63  59  61  63  54
Weather cov.....LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............70  70  30  30  30  30  30  30  20  20  20  10
Temp............70  66  65  64  63  63  63  62  61  60  59  59
RH..............51  64  63  65  66  64  65  67  69  74  75  74
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..5   5   6   6   6   7   7   7   7   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  11  11  13  13  13  13  11  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   SW  SW  W   W   SW  SW  W   W
Transp wind spd.7   8   8   7   9   8   9   9   9   9   9   8

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny then becoming mostly cloudy.
                    Chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1100,
                    then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent early in the morning increasing to 60 percent
                    after 1100.
Max temperature.....72-75 degrees.
Min humidity........45-48 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 9 mph shifting to
                    the west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1100 ft AGL increasing to 3700 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 9 knots shifting to the north around
                    6 knots early in the morning, then shifting to
                    the southwest 6 to 7 knots early in the
                    afternoon increasing to around 8 knots late in
                    the afternoon.

TIME (MST)      11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A
Sky (%).........53  42  44  27  40  68  72  69  72  72  68  72
Weather cov.....                    CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY
Weather type....                    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                    CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  50  50  50  50  50  50  60
Temp............60  62  63  67  68  69  71  70  71  71  72  71
RH..............74  69  64  56  52  50  50  50  50  49  46  48
20 FT wind dir..SW  W   NW  N   NE  NE  N   W   W   W   SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.10  8   10  10  10  10  11  11  12  12  13  13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 0.1 1.1 2.5 3.6 3.7 2.6 2.6 3.2 2.1 2.5
Transp wind dir.W   NW  NW  N   N   N   W   SW  SW  SW  S   SW
Transp wind spd.9   8   6   6   6   6   7   6   6   7   8   8

$$
Forecaster...LADER
Requested by...MICHAEL HOYE
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2518268.0/TWC
.DELDT 07/19/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL aztdc@firenet.gov

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