303
FNUS75 KTWC 271952
FWSTWC

Spot Forecast for Mcdonald...San Carlos Indian Reservation
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1252 PM MST Thu Aug 27 2026

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1500 MST on August 27.

.DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorm chances will increase today through the weekend as moisture
increases across the region. Isolated thunderstorms are expected in the area
of the fire site this afternoon, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms Friday
afternoon and evening. Chances will increase further this weekend, especially Sunday.
Surface winds will generally be light and terrain driven, with strong gusty winds
possible with any thunderstorm. Minimum relative humidities will increase from around
20 percent today to 23-26 percent on Friday, then further increasing this weekend.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms by the late afternoon
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....92-95 degrees.
Min humidity........19-22 percent.
20-foot winds.......Initially southwest winds of 6-11 mph becoming northeast
10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph as thunderstorms approach.
Stronger gusty and erratic winds possible with any thunderstorm.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (41100 knot-ft).
Mixing height.......7300 ft AGL decreasing to 5100 ft AGL late in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 knots turning to the northeast 8 to 10 knots after 5 PM
MST.

TIME (MST)      3 PM
Sky (%).........77
Weather cov.....S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC
CWR.............20
Temp............89
RH..............23
20 FT wind......SW 7G12.
Mix hgt (ft)....7300
Transport wind..SW 10.
Vrate kt-ft/1K..59
Ventrate Cat....GOOD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the early evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent becoming zero percent after midnight.
Min temperature.....63-66 degrees.
Max humidity........52-55 percent.
20-foot winds.......North winds of 5 to 8 mph becoming downslope and northeast 5 mph
late. Gusty and erratic winds possible
                    near thunderstorms early in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (23300 knot-ft) decreasing to poor (3200
                    knot-ft).
Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 8 knots.

TIME (MST)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........58        59        75        54
Weather cov.....S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR    NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........S CHC
CWR.............10        10        0         0
Temp............81        74        69        67
RH..............34        40        46        50
20 FT wind......N 5G10    NE 5G11   NE 5G10   NE 5G8
Mix hgt (ft)....2900      500       500       500
Transport wind..NE 8      NE 8      NE 7      E 7
Vrate kt-ft/1K..23        4         4         4
Ventrate Cat....FAIR      POOR      POOR      POOR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny then becoming partly sunny in the
afternoon. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
in the mid to late afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent increasing to 30 percent after 2 PM MST.
Max temperature.....90-93 degrees.
Min humidity........23-26 percent.
20-foot winds.......Downslope winds out of the northeast 5 to 8 mph in the
early morning, becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the late
morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds possible
near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (64600 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL increasing to 4200 ft AGL late in
                    the morning, then increasing to 10000 ft AGL
                    late in the morning.
Transport winds.....East 6 to 7 knots shifting to the southeast in
                    the late morning and early afternoon, then
                    shifting to the southwest around 6 knots early
                    in the afternoon.

TIME (MST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........55        33        45        75
Weather cov.....                    S CHC     CHANCE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                    S CHC     CHANCE
CWR.............0         0         10        30
Temp............65        82        90        88
RH..............53        34        25        28
20 FT wind......NE 5G9    SW 5G8    SW 5G10   SW 5G10
Mix hgt (ft)....500       4200      10000     4700
Transport wind..NE 7      SE 6      S 6       N 8
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4         25        60        38
Ventrate Cat....POOR      FAIR      GOOD      FAIR

$$
Forecaster...Edwards
Requested by...Incident Commander
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2620512.1/TWC
.DELDT 08/27/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL azphc@firenet.gov

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