772
FNUS75 KTWC 091917
FWSTWC

Spot Forecast for Gardner Pile Burn...USFS
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1217 PM MST Wed Sep 9 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 MST on September 10.

.DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible
Thursday afternoon and evening. Storms will be capable of heavy
rainfall, gusty winds to 45 mph, and lightning. Friday will see similar
thunderstorm activity with maybe a little earlier start. Winds
will be out of the southwest to northwest 5 to 10 mph Thursday and
Friday. Min RH will be around 40-45 percent with very good overnight
recoveries around 85 percent.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Max temperature.....89-92 degrees.
Min humidity........40-43 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 5 to 10 mph in the late morning
                    through the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL increasing to 5900 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 5 to 9 knots shifting to the west 8
                    to 10 knots.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2100 knot-ft) increasing to good (53400
                    knot-ft) in the afternoon.

TIME (MST)      7 AM      10 AM     1 PM      4 PM
Sky (%).........36        19        53        59
Weather cov.....                    CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                    CHANCE    CHANCE
CWR.............0         0         30        40
Temp............69        83        88        85
RH..............78        50        41        43
20 FT wind......SW 3G6    W 4G8     NW 6G12   W 6G14
Mix hgt (ft)....400       3700      5500      3800
Transport wind..NW 5      NW 5      NW 9      W 10
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2         19        49        38
Ventrate Cat....POOR      MRGL      GOOD      FAIR

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy. Chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms before 10 PM.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Min temperature.....64-67 degrees.
Max humidity........82-86 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    southwest after 7 PM. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 9 to 10 knots shifting to the
                    southwest 7 to 9 knots in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Marginal (13400 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (3200 knot-ft) early in the
                    morning.

TIME (MST)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........48        57        43        55
Weather cov.....CHANCE    S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE    S CHC
CWR.............30        20        0         0
Temp............81        73        69        67
RH..............49        67        77        83
20 FT wind......NW 6G13   SW 6G11   SW 6G10   SW 6G10
Mix hgt (ft)....1500      400       500       500
Transport wind..NW 9      SW 9      SW 9      SW 8
Vrate kt-ft/1K..13        4         4         4
Ventrate Cat....MRGL      POOR      POOR      POOR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny then becoming partly cloudy.
                    Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Max temperature.....86-89 degrees.
Min humidity........45-48 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 5 to 10 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL increasing to 5100 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 7 knots shifting to the
                    northwest 6 to 8 knots early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (31000 knot-ft).

TIME (MST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........33        33        73        73
Weather cov.....                    CHANCE    LIKELY
Weather type....                    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                    CHANCE    CHANCE
CWR.............0          0        30        50
Temp............66        75        85        84
RH..............87        67        47        47
20 FT wind......SW 4G7    W 4G7     NW 5G10   NW 6G14
Mix hgt (ft)....500       2100      5100      4700
Transport wind..S 7       W 6       NW 7      NW 7
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4         13        36        33
Ventrate Cat....POOR      MRGL      FAIR      FAIR

$$
Forecaster...Hardin
Requested by...Wes Gutweiler
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2621213.1/TWC
.DELDT 09/09/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL wesley.gutweiler@usda.gov

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