Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
414
FNUS55 KTWC 192021
FWFTWC
Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Southeast Arizona
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
121 PM MST Wed Aug 19 2026
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20-FOOT WIND FORECAST OF `LIGHT WINDS` INDICATES MAINLY
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
.DISCUSSION...Strong thunderstorms will return to Southeast
Arizona this afternoon. The primary concern with storms this
afternoon is that they will be capable of producing organized storm
outflow winds 45-55 mph, potentially producing localized dense
blowing dust. Deep moisture moving into the region from the Gulf of
California will bring about a secondary concern of heavy rainfall
capable of producing isolated flash flooding, especially across
central and eastern Pima county. Otherwise, an uptick in storm
strength and coverage into the upcoming weekend. Hot conditions will
persist this week with an Extreme Heat Warning in effect today
through Friday for portions of the Southeast Arizona. Winds mainly
light and terrain driven. Strong, gusty and erratic winds will
accompany thunderstorms. Minimum relative humidities 15-25 percent
in lower elevations with 25-35 percent in the higher terrain.
AZZ150-201415-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 150
Sonoran FDRA-Most of Pima County-South Central Pinal County-
Tohono O`odham Nation-Tucson Metropolitan area-TDC-
121 PM MST Wed Aug 19 2026
.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather..............Partly cloudy (40-50 pct). Patchy
blowing dust. Slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms.
* Chance of Precip.........30 pct.
* Chance of Thunder........20 pct.
* Min Temperature..........75 to 85 degs.
24 hr Trend...........Down 1 deg.
* Max Humidity.............54 to 64 pct.
24 hr Trend...........Down 1 to 4 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..South around 10 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........Northeast 10 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY...
* Sky/Weather..............Partly cloudy (25-35 pct).
* Chance of Precip.........10 pct.
* Chance of Thunder........0 pct.
* Max Temperature..........98 to 108 degs.
24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Min Humidity.............21 to 31 pct.
24 hr Trend...........Down 1 to 4 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Light winds becoming northwest around 10
mph in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........East 5 to 10 mph.
* Mixing height............8814 ft AGL.
* Transport winds..........South 8 knots shifting to the northwest
in the afternoon.
* Ventilation Category.....Very good (70512 knot-ft).
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy (55-65 pct). Slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms.
* Chance of Precip.........20 pct.
* Chance of Thunder........20 pct.
* Min Temperature..........74 to 84 degs.
24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Max Humidity.............49 to 59 pct.
24 hr Trend...........Down 1 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..West around 10 mph in the evening
becoming light.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........West around 5 mph shifting to the east
after midnight.
.FRIDAY...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy (50-60 pct). Slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms.
* Chance of Precip.........10 pct.
* Chance of Thunder........10 pct.
* Max Temperature..........100 to 110 degs.
24 hr Trend...........Up 1 deg.
* Min Humidity.............17 to 27 pct.
24 hr Trend...........Down 1 to 4 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Light winds becoming northwest around 10
mph in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........East around 5 mph shifting to the south
in the afternoon.
* Mixing height............12679 ft AGL.
* Transport winds..........East 7 knots shifting to the northwest 6
knots in the afternoon.
* Ventilation Category.....Very good (76074 knot-ft).
.Forecast days 3 through 7......
Winds in Days 3 through 5 are surface 20 ft/10-min avg
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows 75 to 85. Highs 100 to 110. Light winds.
Minimum Humidity 14 to 23 pct.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows 75 to 85. Highs 98 to 108. Light winds.
Minimum Humidity 17 to 27 pct.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows 74 to 84. Highs 98 to 108. Light winds.
Minimum Humidity 18 to 28 pct.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows 75 to 85. Highs 100 to 110.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows 76 to 86. Highs 100 to 110.
NOTE TO USERS - ZONE 150 VENTILATION CATEGORY...MIXING HEIGHT AND
TRANSPORT WINDS ARE BASED ON THE TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
LOCATION (2550 MSL)
$$
AZZ151-201415-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 151
Western half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southeast corner of Pinal County-
Extreme Eastern Pima County-Western third of Cochise County-
Santa Cruz County-TDC-
121 PM MST Wed Aug 19 2026
.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy (55-65 pct). Patchy
blowing dust. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
* Chance of Precip.........40 pct.
* Chance of Thunder........40 pct.
* Min Temperature..........66 to 76 degs.
24 hr Trend...........Up 1 deg.
* Max Humidity.............67 to 77 pct.
24 hr Trend...........Down 3 to 6 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Northwest around 10 mph in the evening
becoming light.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........Northeast 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...
* Sky/Weather..............Partly cloudy (30-40 pct). Slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms.
* Chance of Precip.........20 pct.
* Chance of Thunder........20 pct.
* Max Temperature..........91 to 101 degs.
24 hr Trend...........Up 1 deg.
* Min Humidity.............26 to 36 pct.
24 hr Trend...........Down 1 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..West around 10 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........Northeast around 10 mph shifting to the
southeast in the afternoon.
* Mixing height............7846 ft AGL.
* Transport winds..........North 7 to 8 knots.
* Ventilation Category.....Good (62768 knot-ft).
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy (55-65 pct). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms.
* Chance of Precip.........40 pct.
* Chance of Thunder........40 pct.
* Min Temperature..........66 to 76 degs.
24 hr Trend...........Down 1 deg.
* Max Humidity.............63 to 73 pct.
24 hr Trend...........Down 4 to 8 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..North around 10 mph in the evening
becoming light.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........West around 5 mph shifting to the
northeast after midnight.
.FRIDAY...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy (50-60 pct). Slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms.
* Chance of Precip.........10 pct.
* Chance of Thunder........10 pct.
* Max Temperature..........93 to 103 degs.
24 hr Trend...........Up 1 deg.
* Min Humidity.............21 to 31 pct.
24 hr Trend...........Down 2 to 5 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Light winds becoming northwest around 10
mph in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........Southeast 5 to 10 mph.
* Mixing height............11181 ft AGL.
* Transport winds..........East 6 knots shifting to the south 8
knots in the afternoon.
* Ventilation Category.....Very good (89448 knot-ft).
.Forecast days 3 through 7......
Winds in Days 3 through 5 are surface 20 ft/10-min avg
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows 67 to 77. Highs 93 to 103. Light winds.
Minimum Humidity 18 to 28 pct.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows 67 to 77. Highs 92 to 102. Light winds.
Minimum Humidity 21 to 31 pct.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows 66 to 76. Highs 92 to 102. Light winds.
Minimum Humidity 20 to 30 pct.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows 66 to 76. Highs 93 to 103.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows 68 to 78. Highs 94 to 104.
NOTE TO USERS - ZONE 151 VENTILATION CATEGORY...MIXING HEIGHT AND
TRANSPORT WINDS ARE BASED ON THE BUENOS AIRES N.W.R. LOCATION
(3500 MSL)
$$
AZZ152-201415-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 152
Eastern half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southwest Graham County and Eastern two thirds of
Cochise County-Southern San Carlos Reservation-
Southern Greenlee County below 5000 feet-TDC-
121 PM MST Wed Aug 19 2026
.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy (45-55 pct). Patchy blowing
dust. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
* Chance of Precip.........20 pct.
* Chance of Thunder........20 pct.
* Min Temperature..........66 to 76 degs.
24 hr Trend...........Up 1 deg.
* Max Humidity.............60 to 70 pct.
24 hr Trend...........Up 8 to 12 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Northwest around 10 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........Northeast 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...
* Sky/Weather..............Partly cloudy (40-50 pct). Slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms.
* Chance of Precip.........20 pct.
* Chance of Thunder........20 pct.
* Max Temperature..........93 to 103 degs.
24 hr Trend...........Up 1 to 4 degs.
* Min Humidity.............21 to 31 pct.
24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Northwest around 10 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........Northeast around 10 mph shifting to the
south in the afternoon.
* Mixing height............8946 ft AGL.
* Transport winds..........Northwest 7 to 10 knots.
* Ventilation Category.....Very good (89460 knot-ft).
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy (50-60 pct). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms.
* Chance of Precip.........30 pct.
* Chance of Thunder........30 pct.
* Min Temperature..........65 to 75 degs.
24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Max Humidity.............60 to 70 pct.
24 hr Trend...........Up 2 to 5 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..North around 10 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........Northwest 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy (50-60 pct). Slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms.
* Chance of Precip.........10 pct.
* Chance of Thunder........10 pct.
* Max Temperature..........94 to 104 degs.
24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Min Humidity.............18 to 28 pct.
24 hr Trend...........Down 1 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Light winds becoming south around 10 mph
in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........South 5 to 10 mph.
* Mixing height............10085 ft AGL.
* Transport winds..........East 7 knots shifting to the south 8
knots in the afternoon.
* Ventilation Category.....Very good (80680 knot-ft).
.Forecast days 3 through 7......
Winds in Days 3 through 5 are surface 20 ft/10-min avg
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows 66 to 76. Highs 94 to 104. Light winds.
Minimum Humidity 14 to 24 pct.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows 67 to 77. Highs 94 to 104. Light winds.
Minimum Humidity 15 to 25 pct.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows 66 to 76. Highs 94 to 104.
Northwest wind around 15 mph. Minimum Humidity 14 to 24 pct.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 67 to 77. Highs 95 to 105.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 68 to 78. Highs 95 to 105.
NOTE TO USERS - ZONE 152 VENTILATION CATEGORY...MIXING HEIGHT AND
TRANSPORT WINDS ARE BASED ON THE CHIRICAHUA N.M. LOCATION (5400 MSL)
$$
AZZ153-201415-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 153
Northern Graham County-Northern Greenlee County-
White and Gila Mountains-Apache Sitgreaves NF-
Southern San Carlos Reservation above 5000 feet-SDC-
121 PM MST Wed Aug 19 2026
.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy (60-70 pct). Slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms.
* Chance of Precip.........30 pct.
* Chance of Thunder........20 pct.
* Min Temperature..........59 to 69 degs.
24 hr Trend...........Up 1 to 4 degs.
* Max Humidity.............58 to 68 pct.
24 hr Trend...........Up 3 to 7 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..North around 10 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........Northeast 10 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy (55-65 pct). Chance of showers
and thunderstorms.
* Chance of Precip.........50 pct.
* Chance of Thunder........50 pct.
* Max Temperature..........83 to 93 degs.
24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Min Humidity.............23 to 33 pct.
24 hr Trend...........Down 1 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Northeast around 10 mph shifting to the
southwest in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........Northeast around 10 mph shifting to the
southeast in the afternoon.
* Mixing height............9051 ft AGL.
* Transport winds..........Northeast 9 knots.
* Ventilation Category.....Very good (81459 knot-ft).
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy (55-65 pct). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms.
* Chance of Precip.........30 pct.
* Chance of Thunder........30 pct.
* Min Temperature..........58 to 68 degs.
24 hr Trend...........Down 1 deg.
* Max Humidity.............60 to 70 pct.
24 hr Trend...........Up 1 to 4 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..North around 10 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........East 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy (50-60 pct). Slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms.
* Chance of Precip.........20 pct.
* Chance of Thunder........20 pct.
* Max Temperature..........83 to 93 degs.
24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Min Humidity.............23 to 33 pct.
24 hr Trend...........Down 3 to 6 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..East around 10 mph shifting to the south
in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........South 5 to 10 mph.
* Mixing height............11653 ft AGL.
* Transport winds..........East 9 knots shifting to the south in
the afternoon.
* Ventilation Category.....Excellent (104877 knot-ft).
.Forecast days 3 through 7......
Winds in Days 3 through 5 are surface 20 ft/10-min avg
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows 58 to 68. Highs 83 to 93. Light winds.
Minimum Humidity 20 to 30 pct.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows 59 to 69. Highs 84 to 94. Northeast
wind around 15 mph. Minimum Humidity 18 to 28 pct.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows 58 to 68. Highs 84 to 94. North
wind around 15 mph. Minimum Humidity 17 to 27 pct.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows 59 to 69. Highs 85 to 95.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows 59 to 69. Highs 85 to 95.
NOTE TO USERS - ZONE 153 VENTILATION CATEGORY...MIXING HEIGHT AND
TRANSPORT WINDS ARE BASED ON THE POINT OF PINES LOCATION (6040 MSL)
$$
AZZ154-201415-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 154
Forest Woodlands FDRA including the Sky Islands of Southeast
Arizona above 5500 feet-Coronado NF-TDC-
121 PM MST Wed Aug 19 2026
.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy (45-55 pct). Slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms.
* Chance of Precip.........30 pct.
* Chance of Thunder........20 pct.
* Min Temperature..........60 to 70 degs.
24 hr Trend...........Down 1 deg.
* Max Humidity.............59 to 69 pct.
24 hr Trend...........Up 1 to 4 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..North around 10 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........Northeast 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly sunny (20-30 pct). Slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms.
* Chance of Precip.........20 pct.
* Chance of Thunder........20 pct.
* Max Temperature..........82 to 92 degs.
24 hr Trend...........Up 1 deg.
* Min Humidity.............28 to 38 pct.
24 hr Trend...........Down 1 to 4 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Northwest around 10 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........Northeast around 10 mph shifting to the
south in the afternoon.
* Mixing height............11355 ft AGL.
* Transport winds..........North 8 to 9 knots.
* Ventilation Category.....Very good (96517 knot-ft).
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy (55-65 pct). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms.
* Chance of Precip.........30 pct.
* Chance of Thunder........30 pct.
* Min Temperature..........60 to 70 degs.
24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Max Humidity.............57 to 67 pct.
24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..North around 10 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........West 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...
* Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy (50-60 pct). Slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms.
* Chance of Precip.........10 pct.
* Chance of Thunder........10 pct.
* Max Temperature..........83 to 93 degs.
24 hr Trend...........Little change.
* Min Humidity.............26 to 36 pct.
24 hr Trend...........Down 2 to 5 pct.
* Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..East around 10 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL Wind........Southeast 5 to 10 mph.
* Mixing height............13730 ft AGL.
* Transport winds..........East 7 knots shifting to the southeast
in the afternoon.
* Ventilation Category.....Very good (96110 knot-ft).
.Forecast days 3 through 7......
Winds in Days 3 through 5 are surface 20 ft/10-min avg
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows 61 to 71. Highs 83 to 93. Light winds.
Minimum Humidity 21 to 31 pct.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows 61 to 71. Highs 82 to 92. Light winds.
Minimum Humidity 22 to 32 pct.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows 60 to 70. Highs 82 to 92. Northwest wind
around 15 mph. Minimum Humidity 22 to 32 pct.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows 61 to 71. Highs 83 to 93.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows 62 to 72. Highs 84 to 94.
NOTE TO USERS - ZONE 154 VENTILATION CATEGORY...MIXING HEIGHT AND
TRANSPORT WINDS ARE BASED ON THE AVERAGE ACROSS THE ZONE
$$
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