600
FXUS65 KTWC 132053
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
153 PM MST Tue May 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...High temperatures for the next week will generally be
near to below normal for mid-May. A storm system moving to our north
across the Great Basin will result in breezy to windy southwest to
west winds through Wednesday. Less wind on Thursday and Friday and
then a return to breezy conditions over the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows variable
amounts of cloud cover across southeast Arizona as the strong winds
aloft are resulting in a mountain wave pattern with many locales in
Santa Cruz and Cochise County seeing persistent clouds. The breezy
to windy conditions is being caused by troughiness approaching from
the northwest. Winds have been a bit slower than anticipated in
picking up today but based on latest observations, wind speeds
continue to ramp up and we`ve seen some gusts of 40-50 mph in Santa
Cruz and Cochise Counties. Webcams and satellite are showing patchy
areas of blowing dust but nothing widespread at this point. Red Flag
Warnings, Wind Advisories and a Blowing Dust Advisory remain in
effect for various portions of the forecast area this afternoon.
Temperatures this afternoon are near seasonable levels.

Winds will remain elevated on Wednesday, especially east of Tucson
as the troughing shifts eastward from the Great Basin into the
central Rockies. Wind speeds of 20 to 30 mph for eastern areas
Wednesday with higher gusts east of Tucson aren`t quite strong
enough for additional wind headlines but a Red Flag Warning is in
effect east of Tucson. Expect areas of blowing dust between Willcox
and the NM border along I-10. Temperatures Wednesday will be 5 to 10
degrees below normal.

Dry west to southwest flow aloft continue Thursday and Friday with
more typical afternoon breezes. Temperatures Thursday will warm
slightly and still be just a bit below normal while temperatures
Friday warm to seasonable levels.

Another dry system will impact the area this weekend into early next
week resulting in another round of breezy to windy conditions, with
the strongest expected on Sunday. This system will also bring another
round of cooling with temperatures dropping to below normal levels
again Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 15/00Z.
BKN-SCT clouds AOA 15k ft AGL for much of the valid pd. SWLY SFC
wind at 20-30 kts and gusts to 35-45 kts thru 14/03Z with the
strongest SFC wind being SE of KTUS in the vcnty of KDUG and KALK.
SFC winds diminishing to less than 12 kts after 14/03z. SFC winds
then increase again becoming SWLY/WLY 12-22 kts and gusts 25-35 kts
with locally higher winds vcnty of KDUG and KALK. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A storm system will move across the Great Basin,
bringing strong and gusty southwest to west winds into Wednesday.
This will result in critical fire weather conditions area wide this
afternoon and across far eastern areas Wednesday afternoon The
strongest winds will occur this afternoon, with sustained 20-foot
winds of 20 to 30 mph and gusts to around 45 mph, locally higher to
55 mph in the mountains. A Red Flag Warning is in effect through 8
pm MST for all fire weather zones across southeast Arizona (150,
151, 152, 153 and 154). A Red Flag Warning is in effect Wednesday
from 10 am MST to 7 PM MST for most of Fire Weather Zone 152 and
eastern portions of Fire Weather Zone 151 and 154.

Otherwise, above normal high temperatures this afternoon will lower
to 5-10 degrees below normal Wednesday. Temperatures rebound to
seasonable levels Friday and Saturday. Typical afternoon breezes
Thursday and Friday for much of southeast Arizona, with breezy
conditions persisting across eastern areas. Increasing wind speeds
are expected over the upcoming weekend as another storm system moves
to our north. Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are
expected both Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ150>154.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ151-152-154.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ507-508-512-513.

Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for AZZ508.

&&

$$

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