440
FXUS65 KTWC 222157
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
257 PM MST Thu May 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Hottest temperatures of the year so far for most of
southeast Arizona today will give way to a slight cooling trend
into this weekend. Highs near normal or slightly above normal
most of next week. Breezy area wide on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Upper heights peaking overhead today resulting in
the hottest temperatures so far this year for most of SE Arizona.
The high in Tucson, as of 220 pm, was 104 degrees. Patches of
this cirrus moving across the area this afternoon will increase in
areal coverage tonight into the overnight period.

Friday: Breezy to very localized windy conditions as upper level
trof approaches the area from the west. The winds will bring
elevated fire weather conditions to most of the area in the
afternoon to early evening hours. Highs a few degrees cooler than
today.

This weekend: Above mentioned trof will move across the Great
Basin, keeping afternoon breezes around, and cooling high
temperatures down to normal or several degrees below normal.

Next week: Gradual warming each day as upper ridge builds over the
state while an upper level develops/settles of srn CA/nrn CA
coast. Out east there will be a gradual push of mid-level moisture
across New Mexico toward the AZ/NM line Tuesday thru Thursday.
This moisture could bring the threat of dry thunderstorms to, at
this time, the White mountains either or both Wednesday and
Thursday. Confidence is low at this time. Something to watch.

Something else to watch is the tropics where extended models are
hinting at some tropical development well south of the southern
coast of Mexico. This is highlighted in the latest Eastern Pacific
Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the Hurricane Center. The
Eastern Pacific Hurricane season began last week on May 15th.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 24/00Z.
SKC to SCT thin cirrus AOA 20k ft AGL thru 23/06z. Aft 23/06z
SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru remainder of valid pd. SFC winds
SWLY/WLY 10-15 kts with ocnl gusts to 25 kts thru 23/03z. SFC
winds bcmg terrain driven less then 12 kts overnight into Friday
morning. SFC winds aft 23/17z, SWLY/WLY 12-18 kts with ocnl gusts
up to 28 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Occasionally gusty winds continue into this
evening. Stronger winds are expected Friday as a weather system
approaches the area. At this time, wind speeds should stay below
critical fire weather thresholds (Southwest 15-20 mph with gusts
to 30-35 mph). Single digit min RH values at all elevations over
the next week with poor overnight recoveries.

There is the potential for some mid-level moisture to move into
far eastern areas (east of Tucson) by the middle of next week.
This may lead to some afternoon buildups and/or isolated dry
lightning strikes Tuesday through Thursday next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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