Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
667 FXUS65 KTWC 151007 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 307 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions and warmer temperatures today. A weather system moves through early this week with increased breezes Monday, then numerous showers Tuesday with continued breezes. Another weather system will move through Wednesday and Thursday with the potential for a few showers. Cooler temperatures are expected Tuesday through Friday. && .DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery this morning showed increasing high clouds which will be around all day under southwest flow aloft as the upper ridge that was over the area yesterday moves on east. Still looking at a warmer day versus Saturday, up to 9 degrees warmer in the valleys and 10 to 15 degrees warmer in the mountains. These clouds are associated with our next Pacific storm system which was located west of California this morning. This storm system will bring gusty southwest winds Monday and Tuesday and our next good chance of valley rain and mountain snow late Monday night into Tuesday. Storm total QPF values mostly less than a third of an inch with highest totals north of Tucson. Snow level down to around 7500 feet with 1 to 4 inches possible. Turning cooler on Tuesday with highs up to 10 degrees cooler than Monday. Days 4-7 (Web Feb 18 to Sat Feb 21) A couple of fast moving short wave trofs moving by to our north will bring less than 30% percent PoPs to the area on Wednesday and Thursday. Slightly warmer Wednesday versus Tuesday then turning cooler again on Thursday. Dry Friday and Saturday with warmer highs both days. No changes were made to the NBM baseline initialization. Days 8-14 (Feb 22-28) Temperature: Leaning above normal (40-50%) Precipitation: Leaning below normal (40-50%) && .AVIATION...Valid through 16/12Z. BKN-SCT clouds AOA 18k ft AGL. SFC winds less than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry and warmer today. Unsettled weather returns the first half of this week with periods of valley rain and mountain snow Monday night and Tuesday. Strong and gusty southwest winds are expected Monday and Tuesday with speeds of 15-20 mph and gusts up to around 30-35 mph. Another weather system may bring a few showers Wednesday through Thursday. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson