410
FXUS65 KTWC 042021
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
121 PM MST Tue Feb 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Breezy conditions today with potentially record breaking warm
temperatures. Unseasonably warm temperatures will trend downward
each day, with temperatures reaching near normal by mid week next
week.
&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Points:

- Abnormally warm today leading to another day of potentially
  record- breaking temperatures and Minor HeatRisk for lower
  deserts.
- Temperatures slowly trending downward through the rest of the week
and into the weekend, becoming near normal by Tuesday/Wednesday next
week (Normal High is 68F for Tucson Area).
- Dry weather will remain through the next 7 days.

Southwest flow aloft will remain over the desert southwest as a
Pacific Northwest trough sits to the north. While the broad ridge
that has brought unseasonably warm temperatures continues to shift
east, the region remains under strong positive mid- upper level
height anomalies. As the ridge continues to shift eastward and shortwaves
move around the Pacific Northwest trough over the next couple of
days, temperatures will cool slightly across southeast Arizona. A
modestly tightened pressure gradient associated with the
southwest flow will likely produce breezy winds today in the 10-20
mph range, with gusts up to 25 mph. As the jet stream nudges
southward towards the region Wednesday through the weekend, daily
breezy conditions are likely to a varying degree, though, Thursday
should have similar winds to today (gusts around 20 mph).

High temperatures will gradually decrease each day through the
weekend and into next week as we continue to be influenced by a
trough progged to dig into the northern Great Basin this weekend
before lifting across the Northern Plains. This pattern evolution
is highlighted fairly well across all ensembles and Cluster
Analysis. Not much moisture this far south associated with the
trough, so confidence is fairly high that the forecast will
remain mostly dry as temperatures decrease into next week. Ensembles
begin to diverge after Monday/Tuesday, with most ensemble member
variance explained with a colder/digger trough digging down on the
backside of the departing weekend trough. This scenario could
bring more `active` weather to the desert southwest come late next
week by bringing some precipitation. NBM has probabilities of
20-40% of at least some measurable rain (0.01") across much of
Arizona late next week. With still some notable disagreements in
timing/strength of the second trough next week, the details are
still very uncertain, including precipitation, winds, and how cool
temperatures get. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 06/00Z.

Breezy winds have begin with 10-15 kts and gusts to 15-20 kts out
of the south/southwest, which will remain until 05/02Z when winds
diminish and become terrain driven. West to northwest winds 5-8
kts at KTUS and southwest winds 8-10 kts for KDUG & KOLS by 05/21Z
tomorrow afternoon. Lighter winds expected at KSAD. Besides some
FEW aoa 25 Kft this afternoon, expect mostly clear (SKC) skies
through tomorrow.

Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Well above normal temperatures continue today. Breezy south to
southwest winds are expected to increase late this morning and
afternoon across much of southeastern Arizona, especially in areas
exposed to southwest flow and ridge tops. 10 to 20 mph winds with
gusts up to 25 mph likely in these areas. Minimum relative
humidity values will be down into the 8 to 14 percent range this
afternoon. These dry conditions remain through the weekend, with
slightly higher values in far western Pima county. Though, not as
warm as today, temperatures remain unseasonably warm through the
remainder of the week along with critical RH values.

&&

.CLIMATE...Record or near record high temperatures today.

DATE                         Feb 04
                          FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT        85  84/1925
AJO                        84  85/1963
KITT PEAK                  67  75/1963
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS          83  89/1963
PICACHO PEAK               82  82/2009
SAFFORD AG STATION         82  75/1995
SIERRA VISTA FD            79  77/1980
TOMBSTONE                  80  79/1963
&&

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Public...Peters
Aviation...Peters
Fire Weather....Peters

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