073
FXUS65 KTWC 192044
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
144 PM MST Sat Apr 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A chilly start tomorrow morning with lows near freezing
in the eastern valleys. High temperatures will then begin to ramp
up quickly with approximately 10 degrees of warming Sunday and
Monday afternoons. Dry and warm conditions will persist next
week, with above normal temperatures expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The upper pattern this afternoon is defined by a
strong upper low centered over west central New Mexico, with a
trailing cold front extending across central and southwest New
Mexico and back into the extreme far southeast corner of Arizona.
The showers associated with the frontal boundary last night into
this morning has since tapered off/moved east by early this
afternoon. Precipitation amounts were generally less than a tenth
inch across Southeast Arizona, with an inch or two of snowfall
reported in the mountain tops. Although the upper low will eject
out of the area fairly rapidly over the next 12 hours, the cold
and dry airmass in its wake will result in a chilly morning east
of Tucson Sunday morning, with near freezing temperatures possible
in the Sulphur Springs Valley.

A broad ridge across the Eastern pacific will broaden east then
next several days resulting in a fairly rapid warm-up the next few
days. In fact, we should see approximately 10 degrees of warming
both tomorrow and again Monday...settling in with afternoon
temperatures 5 to 8 degrees above normal the majority of next
week. Given the broad ridge/near zonal flow, surface winds should
not be problematic this week...so near critical fire weather
conditions are not anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 21/00Z. SCT-BKN clouds 5-8k ft AGL
ISOLD -SHRA along the AZ/NM border through 19/22Z, then skies
clearing from west to east through the evening, with SKC through
the remainder of the valid period. SFC winds NWLY 13-18 kts with
occasional gusts to 30 kts east of KTUS in the vicinity of KDUG,
KALK, and KSAD this afternoon. SFC winds taper off in early
evening becoming less than 10 kts overnight. SFC winds WLY/NWLY
less than 10 kts Sunday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Cooler temperatures through tomorrow morning, with
a warming trend Sunday and Monday with around 10 degrees of
warming each day. Warm conditions next week with temperatures 5-8
degrees above normal. Dry conditions will prevail with minimum
humidity values in the single digits across the valleys and teens
in the mountains Sunday through next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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