266
FXUS65 KTWC 170933
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
233 AM MST Sat May 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...High temperatures through early next week will generally
be near normal. Breezy to windy conditions returning over the
upcoming weekend as a system passes through bringing elevated fire
weather conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A shortwave is currently moving across the area
initiating cloud development mainly Tucson eastward. This
shortwave will move out of the area early this morning, with a
second shortwave moving through the area this afternoon. This
shortwave will increase the afternoon winds for areas east of
Tucson, bringing near critical fire weather conditions for this
area this afternoon.

A dry system passing to the north of the area Sunday and Monday
will bring an increase in winds, bringing critical fire weather
conditions both days for areas east of Tucson, more in the fire
weather section. High temperatures with this system will be 3 to 6
degrees cooler on Sunday and Monday.

Once this system passes, high pressure begins to build bringing
warmer temperatures. The NBM currently has chance a 50%, 90%, 80%,
and 50% chance for Tucson Int`l Airport reaching 100 degrees
Wednesday through Saturday. During these warmer temperatures, much
of the valleys are in the moderate HeatRisk category and means the
heat can affect those sensitive to heat and/or lack adequate
cooling and/or hydration.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 18/12Z.
FEW to BKN clouds AOA 20-25k ft AGL from KSAD to KOLS line thru
17/16Z. After 17/18Z, FEW-SCT AOA 20k ft AGL moving from west to
east across the area through the end of the forecast period.
SFC winds incr to SWLY 17/16Z from thru 18/03Z with speeds of
15-21 kts and a few gusts up to 30 kts. Strongest winds expected
near KALK. Otherwise, SFC winds remain terrain driven and under
10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will be near normal today with typical
breezes for much of southeast Arizona, with breezy conditions
persisting across Cochise, Graham and Greenlee counties where
20-foot wind speeds will be around 15 mph and gusts up to 25-30
mph during the mid/late afternoon hours, bringing near critical
fire weather conditions.

Sunday winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 45 mph are
expected, with a Red Flag Warning in effect from 10 AM to 8 PM on
Sunday. Monday is now looking to be the windiest of the period
across the Gila Valley of Graham, Greenlee, and far eastern Pinal
counties with winds 20 to 30 mph and gusts around 40 mph. An
increase in relative humidity is expected, but still remain close
to critical fire weather condiitons so a Fire Weather Watch has
been issued from 10 AM to 8 PM Monday.

Temperatures will be 2 to 4 degrees below normal Sunday, lowering
to 9 to 12 degrees below normal next Monday, warming to well
above normal levels by the middle of next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ151>154.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for AZZ151>154.

&&

$$

Tetrault

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson