053
FXUS65 KTWC 301609
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
909 AM MST Sat Aug 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A low-grade monsoon day is expected today. Any thunderstorm
chances are mainly in far southern and eastern locations of
southeastern Arizona. Moisture and thunderstorm chances begin to
increase again Sunday through next week, with day to day
variability. High temperatures will be near normal through early
next week, lowering to several degrees below normal the second
half of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...Leftover debris clouds are slowly dissipating over far
southeast Cochise County with clear skies across the rest of the
CWA. An MCV is visible on satellite just west of El Paso over far
northern Mexico, but will be too far east of our area to have an
influence. Northerly mid-level flow will keep most of southeast
Arizona on the dry side today. Best rain chances will be in
Cochise County and southern Santa Cruz County where PWATs are
right around normal. Hi-res guidance shows mostly isolated storms
tied to the higher terrain. Temperatures will be warmer today
right around normal to a couple degrees above normal. See the
previous discussion for longer term details.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 248 AM MST Sat Aug 30 2025/

Today, winds in the low to mid levels take a northerly turn,
pushing moisture south and out of much of southeastern Arizona.
Precipitable water values exceeding one inch will be mostly kept
to far southern and eastern locations, with today`s modest
precipitation chances subsequently focused on Santa Cruz and
Cochise counties.

By early Sunday mean wind will have become easterly, pushing
moisture back into Greenlee/Graham/Cochise counties. Thunderstorm
chances increase, especially over mountain areas. As winds aloft
take somewhat of a northeasterly component, thunderstorms moving off
the White Mountains may impact the Interstate 10 corridor with
gusty winds and potentially blowing dust. There remains plenty of
time for the details in high-resolution modeling to change, but
the end of the 00Z HREF late Sunday afternoon shows signs of
stronger wind probabilities through southern Greenlee,
southeastern Graham, and into northern Cochise county.

Easterly flow in the mid-levels looks likely to continue through
much of the coming week, providing an active forecast each day
(with the caveat of day to day variability in chances). Thursday
into the weekend will be worth watching for increasing coverage of
thunderstorm chances. Modest synoptic support via a Pacific
shortwave aloft may kick off greater coverage towards the end of
the week, while the (uncertain) potential for a moisture boost via
an eastern Pacific tropical system this coming weekend remains.

Temperatures through the upcoming seven days will transition from
near to just above normal through mid-week, then likely becoming
below by the end of the week with the influence of increasing
thunderstorm activity and cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 31/12Z.
Cloud bases at 8k-11k ft and isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms mainly south and east especially near KDUG. Just
cirrus clouds today further north/west through KTUS. Winds mainly
light and terrain driven. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
Amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A low-grade monsoon day is expected today with
increasing chances in eastern locations tomorrow. Daily chances
will continue through the upcoming week, with day to day
variability. High temperatures will be near to slightly above
normal through the weekend, with readings lowering to several
degrees below normal by the second half of the work week. Winds
over the next several days will generally remain less than 15 mph
with typical afternoon gustiness. Min RHs will be in the 20-30
percent range in the lower elevations and 35-45 percent in the
mountains.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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