470
FXUS65 KTWC 222045
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
145 PM MST Fri Aug 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms with day
to day variability on coverage and intensity. Above normal
temperatures through the weekend and then trending down to near
normal by the start of next week. An Extreme Heat Warning in
effect until Sunday evening for the greater Tucson area to
southeastern Pinal county.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Just enough moisture has lead to a vast field of
cumulus clouds forming across the area. The high that brought our
weather yesterday is now bringing dry air into our area from the
east decreasing PWATs to around 1.0 inches over Tucson and nearly
half an inch area`s east of Tucson. The dry air will continue to
push into our area over the weekend, lessening the chances for
storms and showers.

The Extreme Heat Warning has been extended for the greater Tucson
Metro area up through southern Pinal county now until Sunday
evening. This is due to continued high temperatures both during
the daytime and overnight and the long duration of elevated
temperatures leading to Major and localized Extreme Heat Risk.
Remember to stay hydrated and spend time indoors with A/C. If you
need to spend time outside, wear light weight, light colored
clothing and take frequent breaks. Take time to learn the signs of
heat exhaustion and heat stroke, keeping in mind that heat stroke
is an emergency.

High pressure aloft will weaken and migrate eastward as a trough
moves in from the northwest late this weekend into early next
week. This will lead to southeast flow influencing a greater
influx of moisture into our area leading to an increase in the
chances for showers and thunderstorms. Right now, the greatest
chances for storms and showers is Tuesday through Wednesday
period. This will also influence temperatures to cool to at or
below normal with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s Tuesday
through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 24/00Z.
FEW-SCT 9k-12k ft AGL with a slight chance for ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA
west of KTUS. SFC winds will generally be E-SE less than 12 kts
through the forecast period. Expect gusty and erratic winds with
any -TSRA. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect daily chances for rain showers and
thunderstorms into next week with day to day variability of
intensity and coverage of storms. Temperatures will be running
above normal through the weekend with an Extreme Heat Warning in
effect today for the lower elevations. Winds will generally remain
less than 15 mph with the afternoon gustiness into next week. Min
RHs will be 15-20 percent in the low elevations and 20-30 percent
in the mountains through the weekend. Deep monsoon moisture will
return early next week to provide higher wetting rain chances and
coverage as well as better min RHs and below normal temperatures.

&&

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ504>506.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ501>503-
507-509.

&&

$$

Malarkey

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