Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
572 FXUS65 KTWC 220834 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 135 AM MST Fri Nov 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure aloft will result in well above normal high temperatures through Saturday. Temperatures begin to cool Sunday into early next week, with near to slightly below normal readings mid to late next week. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure aloft across the southwestern United States will continue to result in well above normal high temperatures through Saturday. Readings will top out 8-12 degrees above normal, with lower to mid 80s from Tucson westward and highs in the 70s in valley locations across eastern portions of the forecast area. A strong area of low pressure will then move into the Pacific northwest on Sunday, as the atmospheric river moves inland along the west coast. This will result in zonal flow across the southwestern United States Sunday through Tuesday as the upper ridge gets pushed eastward. High temperatures will lower, but still remain above normal as highs top out 4-7 degrees above normal Sunday through Tuesday. A weak disturbance brushes northern Arizona late Tuesday into early Thursday, which will result in a slight chance (10-20 percent) of precipitation across northern Graham/Greenlee counties. High temperatures will be right around normal on Wednesday, with some cooler air on the back side of this disturbance and highs 2-4 degrees below normal Thursday and Friday of next week. && .AVIATION...Valid through 23/12Z. Clear skies to SCT clouds at or above 20k ft AGL through the forecast period. SFC wind 10 kts or less, favoring a WLY/NWLY direction during the afternoon/early evening hours and variable in direction at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will continue through the upcoming weekend. There will then be a slight chance of showers mainly across the northeast portions of the forecast area late Tuesday through early Thursday of next week. High temperatures will be 8-12 degrees above normal through Saturday, lowering back to 4-7 degrees above normal early next week and then slightly below normal by late next week. Min RH values will be 8-15 percent in the valleys and 10-20 percent in the mountains through the weekend. Min RH values will then increase 8-15 percent early to mid next week. 20-foot winds will be 15 mph or less and terrain driven at most locations through the middle of next week, with the potential for elevated southwest to west winds Sunday and again Wednesday across portions of Cochise County. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Zell Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson