554
FXUS65 KTWC 190817
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
117 AM MST Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Breezy and dry conditions with temperatures near
seasonal normal through the start of the weekend. Temperatures
will warm to above normal on Sunday and into the new week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...This early morning water vapor imagery shows a low
pressure center over California where it will bring southwesterly
flow across the region today through Saturday. Ensemble models
are in a solid agreement that it will be mainly a dry weather
system bringing breezy afternoons and cooler temperatures, as in
around to slightly below seasonal normal. This will be a nice
short reprieve from the hot summer temperatures and that feeling
of late September Fall. Saturday is forecasted to be one of the
coolest days this week.

Sunday and the new week, ensemble models show a ridge of high
pressure building over the region. This will be broad ridge to
bring warmer than normal temperatures and lighter winds. With
that, temperatures will start trending warmer on Sunday and
through most of the new week. Tucson west can experience
temperatures close to the 100 degree mark by Monday (10% chance)
and Tuesday (25% chance). 100 degree chances will increase to 50%
for the last half of the week for Tucson and west. This broad
ridge will likely stay around for most of the week and keeping
temperatures elevated. #anotherhotweek.

&&

.AVIATION...valid through 20/12Z.
SKC-FEW high clouds at or around 20k ft AGL throughout the
forecast period. SFC winds light and variable this morning and
again after 20/04z. Otherwise, SFC winds will be Southerly to
Southwesterly at 10-15 kts with occasional gusts up to 22kts,
especially at terminals along the International Border. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with temperatures within a few
degrees of normal through Saturday. 20-foot winds will be
southerly-southwesterly 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to around 25
through the rest of the week. Stronger breezes can be expected on
Friday afternoon, especially south and east of Tucson. Min RHs
will generally be 15 to 20 percent in the lower locations and 20
to 30 percent in the higher locations. Starting Sunday, high
pressure ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds
through the first half of the new week.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Strongman


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