Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
812 FXUS65 KTWC 141931 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 1231 PM MST Tue Jul 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening with a threat of heavy rainfall and strong outflow winds. - Daily chances for thunderstorms will continue through the week with increasing moisture Thursday and Friday bringing more widespread chances. Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall Thursday and Friday, raising the risk for flash flooding. - High temperatures will sit just below normal through mid-week with before cooling further by the end of the week. && .SYNOPSIS... There will be thunderstorm chances each afternoon and evening through the coming week with day to day variability in location and severity, with more widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms forecast Thursday and Friday. Scattered thunderstorms today will bring a threat of heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts. High temperatures will sit just below normal through mid-week before cooling further by the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... The atmosphere has a healthy amount of moisture across the region. Precipitable water content range from 1.80 inches in Phoenix to 1.30 inches in southeast Cochise County based on the latest satellite imagery. Thunderstorms are firing up across the region with a storm motion of westerly. With the abundant moisture in place and the CAPE values rising up to 2700 J/kg by the afternoon, the main threat today will be flash flooding due to the heavy rainfall. The secondary threat will be gusty outflows. HREF models indicate 5-20% for gusts greater than 35 mph this afternoon. Tomorrow: The upper pattern flow will switch from the northeast, bringing energy down from the White Mountains into the valleys. There will be drier air in the upper levels to support robust thunderstorms. The HREF probabilities for strong gusty winds increases; highest areas (greater than 50%) will be the line from Tucson to Safford and northwest. The shift of threats become wind as the main threat with secondary threat of flash flooding. Localize blowing dust is possible. Thursday and Friday: An easterly wave will be moving into the region, enhancing the thunderstorm activity for the region. This will keep and even nudge precipitable water content up through this period. Ensemble models has Tucson near the 95th percentile by Thursday. Chances for 24 hour rainfall amounts greater than 0.75 inches will increase by the afternoon into the late night. NBM chances has 45% in the Catalinas, 45% in Sierra Vista, and up to 63% in Nogales. Areas along the Mogollon Rim has over 70% chances for 0.75 inches. WPC has highlighted a Slight Risk (15%) for Excessive Rainfall and therefore elevating the risk for flash flooding. Especially when the soils are becoming more saturated since the weekend. Friday has the same indicators but the upper level flow slows down and potentially kinking the thunderstorm growth, or also known as clouded over. Details will still need to be worked as we closer and allow for more model runs to come in. Weekend: Monsoon pattern will continue with daily chances for thunderstorms. The high pressure center will stay near the Four Corners, continuing the easterly flow across the region. && .AVIATION... Valid through 16/00Z. SCT-BKN ceilings 10k-15k through the afternoon and late evening. Scattered thunderstorm redevelopment expected after 14/19Z and again after 15/19Z. Thunderstorm activity diminishes after 15/03Z. Heavy rainfall, mountain obscurations, and erratic strong wind gusts 35-40 kts possible with any thunderstorm. Outside of thunderstorms, surface winds generally light and under 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... Daily chances for thunderstorms will continue each afternoon and evening through the coming week with day to day variability. More widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday and Friday. Minimum relative humidity 25-30 percent in the lower desert locations and above 40 percent in the mountains this week. Winds this week will remain mainly light and under 15 mph, though strong and erratic winds will be possible with any thunderstorm.&& .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson