Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
021 FXUS65 KTWC 212022 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 122 PM MST Thu Nov 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring warmer than normal temperatures to the area through the weekend then temperatures gradually cool next week leading up to Thanksgiving Day. && .DISCUSSION... A high amplitude ridge is centered over the Intermountain West today, with deep troughs impacting both the West and East Coasts. Weather is quiet under the ridge, with just a broad area of high clouds moving overhead. We are on track to reach the 70s to lower 80s across the forecast area, warmest around Tucson and westward. These high temperatures are on the order of 5 to 10 degrees warmer than normal. Similarly warm temperatures (if not slightly warmer) are expected Friday and Saturday under the influence of strong high pressure. A slow but steady cooling trend begins on Sunday and continues next week as the atmospheric river impacting the West Coast finally moves inland, pushing the upper ridge eastward. This may also bring occasional breezy conditions to the forecast area. By the middle of next week (Wednesday`ish), the upper trough clips our region. The best chances of precipitation should stay to our north, but we will continue to monitor weather trends as changes could impact holiday travel. && .AVIATION...Valid through 23/00Z. Clear skies to SCT clouds at or above 20k ft AGL through the forecast period. SFC wind 10 kts or less, favoring a NLY/NELY direction during the afternoon/early evening hours and variable in direction at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions will continue through the upcoming weekend. There will then be a slight chance of showers mainly across the northeast portions of the forecast area Tuesday into Thursday of next week. High temperatures will be 8-12 degrees above normal through Saturday, lowering back to 3-5 degrees above normal early next week. Min RH values will be 8-15 percent in the valleys and 10- 20 percent in the mountains through the weekend. Min RH values will then increase 8-15 percent early next week. 20-foot winds will be 15 mph or less and terrain driven at most locations through early next week, with the potential for elevated southwest winds Sunday through Tuesday mainly across Cochise County. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DANG Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson