318
FXUS65 KTWC 030915
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
215 AM MST Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A weather system will track across Southeast Arizona
today bringing breezy winds and a slight chance of precip north
of Tucson. Another weather system will then move in behind this
first system, resulting in a slightly better chance of light
precipitation Friday and Saturday. Thereafter, a strong ridge of
high pressure will move into the area. This will bring a
significant warm-up in afternoon temperatures begining this
weekend and persisting through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Chilly temperatures today and tomorrow as a weather
system moving across the state also brings a chance of valley
rain and mountain snow tonight into Friday. The best chances
(40-70%) for measurable precipitation will be Friday morning into
Friday afternoon and the trof axis and associated cold air aloft,
with 500 mb temps around -26C, moves through. Snow levels Friday
down to around 5000 feet with any accumulations occurring above
7000 feet with the White mountains seeing between 3 and 5 inches.
Valley QPF values will be rather light, mainly less than two-
tenths with locally higher amounts near the mountains. Highs today
and tomorrow will run 12 to 20 degrees below early April norms.

Saturday: Trof axis moves into NM with wrap around mountain
keeping a chance of rain/snow showers in the White mountains.
Highs 6 to 8 degrees warmer than Friday.

Sunday: Highs 2 to 5 degrees warmer under a cool dry NW flow
aloft.

Next week: Main story will be rapid warm-up to well above normal
high temperatures by the end of the next week with some low
elevation sites, including Tucson, approaching 100 degrees next
Friday. Something to watch since the earliest first 100 degree
high date in Tucson is April 19 occurring in 1989. Current
probabilities still on the low side, less than 20%, next Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 04/12Z.
Expect SCT-BKN clouds between 6k-10k ft AGL through much of the
valid pd. Isold -SHRA dvlpg after 03/23z mainly from KTUS S and E.
SFC winds terrain driven less than 10 kts then WLY 8-15 kts after
03/17z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A weather system will slowly move across the state
through Saturday, bringing a chance of light precipitation tonight
into Friday with lingering shower chances far eastern areas on
Saturday. Thereafter, a strong ridge of high pressure will move
into the area bringing with it a significant warm-up in afternoon
temperatures begining this weekend and persisting through next
week. Daily SFC winds will see afternoon gustiness.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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