051
FXUS65 KTWC 222031
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
131 PM MST Sat Feb 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS... Dry and unseasonably warm weather with high
temperatures well above normal will continue for southeast
Arizona through the weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A ridge will begin to build over Baja California
this afternoon, moving into our area by tomorrow. This high
pressure will persist until the end of the next week. Temperatures
will continually warm, pushing towards 90 with a 28 percent
chance of hitting 90 on Thursday. High temperatures will be well
above normal, 9 to 16 degrees through Friday. Afternoon westerly
winds will pick up Thursday and Friday east of Tucson with
sustained speeds of 15 to 20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH. Otherwise,
winds will be generally light apart from occasional afternoon
gusts.

By the end of next week there is the potential for a pattern
shift. Models indicate a low pressure system will move in from
the northwest bringing slightly cooler temperatures with breezy
afternoon winds. There is a still uncertainty in timing, location,
and intensity of this system.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 24/00Z.
SKC through 23/03Z becoming SKC to FEW as high clouds AOA 20 to
25k ft move into southern Arizona from the northwest. High clouds
will have pushed through the area by 23/10Z becoming SKC for the
remainder of the forecast period. SFC winds will be from the
northwest at 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 15 kts this afternoon
becoming light and variable overnight. Tomorrow afternoon winds
will be from the north at 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 15 kts.
Aviation discussion not updated with TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions for the next 7 days with lower
elevation min RH generally 10-15 percent this afternoon, then
lowering to 5-10 percent from Sunday onward. For the mountains,
min RH 10-15 percent through today, then decreasing to around 10
percent. Surface winds will be light outside of occasional
afternoon gusts, remaining under 20 mph. Temperatures will be
10-16 degrees above normal starting tomorrow through next week.

&&

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Malarkey

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