207
FXUS65 KTWC 212020
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
120 PM MST Fri Feb 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and unseasonably warm weather with high
temperatures well above normal will continue for southeast
Arizona through next work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A very benign late February weather pattern for
southeast Arizona through the forecast period with the most notable
part of the forecast being well above normal temperatures next week.
In the short term, another dry shortwave will pass through Saturday
which will drop our temperatures a couple of degrees compared to
today with highs Saturday about 5 degrees above normal. Thereafter,
ridging and dry conditions will prevail for much of next week, with
the first indications of some potential for pattern change Friday or
next weekend. High temperatures Monday through Thursday will be
about 10 to 16 degrees above normal with highs in Tucson ranging
from 85 to 87 degrees which will approach record levels. Probability
of exceedance for 90 degrees in Tucson per the latest NBM is mostly
between 10 and 20 percent each day next week. Winds will generally
remain light though a few afternoon gusts are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 23/00Z.
FEW-BKN cirrus clouds AOA 20k ft AGL will continue thru 22/06Z, then
becoming SKC thru the end of the period. Sfc winds W/NW 10-15 kts
with gusts 20-25 kts thru 22/03Z, otherwise SFC winds remain under
12 kts and follow normal diurnal trends. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions for the next 7 days with lower
elevation min RH`s generally 10-15 percent this afternoon, then
lowering to 5-10 percent from Saturday onward. For the mountains,
min RH 10-15 percent through Saturday, then decreasing to around 10
percent. A passing weather systems will continue to result in a few
west-northwest breezes this afternoon, mainly east of Tucson.
Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above normal through Saturday,
then increase to 10-16 degrees above normal next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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