Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
136 FXUS65 KTWC 062030 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 130 PM MST Fri Jun 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Dry and warm conditions across southeast Arizona through next week. High temperatures warming to 3 to 5 degrees above normal Sunday and Monday, with the Tucson metro flirting with 105 degrees both Sunday and Monday. Temperatures then moderate a degree or two mid to late next week. && .DISCUSSION...Overall, fairly quiet weather across southeast Arizona over the next week. A ridge high of pressure will amplify from northern Mexico northward into the Pacific Northwest this weekend. This will result in warmer temperatures as highs warm to 3-5 degrees above normal. Tucson will top out at 103 degrees Sunday and 104 degrees on Monday, with NBM probabilities of 105+ at only 5% at this time. The ridge axis shifts eastward mid to late next week, which will allow high temperatures to moderate a degree or two. As the high transitions eastward, there will be a brief period (Tuesday and Wednesday) where mid-level moisture tries to work westward to along the New Mexico state line. Current POPs are less than 10 percent Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon(s) across far eastern areas. At this time, have low confidence in the moisture working this far westward. However, this will be something to keep an eye on as these storms (if they develop) would most likely be of the dry variety. By late next week into the following weekend, high pressure aloft consolidates from the Baja Peninsula across northern Mexico, for dry conditions and warmer temperatures across southeast Arizona. && .AVIATION...Valid through 07/12Z. Clear skies/SKC conditions thru the forecast period. SFC wind SWLY through NWLY in direction at 8-14 kts and gusts to 20-25 kts til 07/02Z and again aft 07/18Z. Between 07/02Z and 07/18Z, SFC wind will be 10 kts or less and variable in direction. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Warm and dry the next 7 days. 20-foot winds generally 15 mph or less, with occasional afternoon/early evening gusts to around 25 mph. Min RH values in the lower elevations in the single digits the next 7 days and between 7-14 percent in the mountains. The only fire weather concern over the next week is the potential for some mid level moisture to push as far west as the New Mexico state line next Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon(s). Current forecast package has less than a 10 percent chance of thunder next Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon`s near the New Mexico state line. At this time, have very low confidence in this scenario coming to fruition. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson