669
FXUS65 KTWC 120915
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
215 AM MST Wed Feb 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Expect an unsettled weather pattern the rest of this
week as a series of weather systems impact the region. As a weak
weather system moves through today, expect a few light showers
mainly across Graham and Greenlee County. Another stronger system
will through Friday into early Saturday resulting in more widespread
precipitation chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Latest IR/WV satellite imagery shows considerable
mid and high level cloudiness streaming in under west to northwest
flow aloft as broad troughing remains over the area. PWAT values are
on the rise as the atmosphere moistens from the top down today,
rising to levels about 150% of normal. However, this increased
moisture really won`t translate well into good precipitation chances
due to the lack of widespread lift. The best chances (20% to 40%)
for a few showers today will be across the higher terrain within
Graham/Greenlee Counties. QPF generally less than 0.05" with snow
levels around 5000-6000 feet. Most notable today will be the much
cooler temperatures compared to yesterday. Highs will top off in the
low to mid 60s for lower elevations and these values are about 5 to
10 degrees below normal. Less wind than yesterday but breezy
conditions remain especially east of Tucson, where sustained west
winds of 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts are expected this afternoon.

Southeast Arizona will generally be between weather systems on
Thursday with a mix of sun and clouds and lighter winds areawide.
Temperatures will rebound back up to normal levels.

The next weather system will move in Friday through early Saturday.
We are still seeing some differences among the ensemble guidance
with how amplified this trough is as the ECMWF/EPS remains the most
amplified compared to the GEFS/GEPS/SREF. This is not going to be a
very impactful event as even the wetter EPS mean keeps valley QPF
values generally less than 0.30". Drier GEFS/GEPS/SREF solutions are
mostly less than 0.15" with the highest amounts across northern
areas. In terms of sensible weather, there will be increasing shower
chances, peaking Friday afternoon through Friday night, then ending
across eastern areas Saturday morning. Snow levels will be around
8000 feet during the day Friday, dropping to around 6000 feet early
Saturday morning. This scenario translates to around 1 to 3 inches
of snow for the Catalinas/Pinalenos/White Mtns. Breezes will
increase Friday, most notably for eastern areas.

Once any lingering showers depart on Saturday, ridging builds back
in for the remainder of the weekend as dry conditions return.
Temperatures on Saturday still slightly below normal for most
locales, then quickly warming to above normal levels Sunday through
early next week. A weak system moving through the Four Corners
region around next Tuesday could temper down temperatures slightly
and bring a few increased breezes as well.


&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 13/12Z. BKN-OVC clouds AOA 18k-20k ft AGL
moving across the area this morning, becoming SCT 8-10 kft and BKN
12-15 kft AGL in the afternoon, with SCT-BKN clouds dropping to 5-8k
ft AGL aft 13/00Z through the end of the forecast period SFC winds
SWLY 15-25 kts with gusts to 30-40 kts. There will be a slight chane
of -SHRA/mountain -SHSN today mainly to the north of KSAD.  Sfc
winds 12 kts or less this morning, then WLY winds of 10-20 kts with
higher gusts up to 30 kts near the NM border. Sfc winds diminish to
12 kts or less aft 13/03Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A weather system moving through today into tonight
will result in a 20 to 40% chance of light showers mainly for
Graham/Greenlee Counties. Breezy conditions continue today as well
with 20-ft winds of 15-20 mph east of Tucson. Less wind and dry
conditions Thursday. The next weather system Friday into early
Saturday will bring better chance of precipitation to the area
although precipitation amounts will generally remain less than
0.25". Cooler temperatures and increased moisture will keep min RH
values in the 15 to 25 percent range through Saturday. Gusty
afternoon winds breezes are expected with the Friday system but min
RH values too high for Red Flag concerns. Dry with warmer
temperatures Sunday and Monday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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