Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
100 FXUS65 KTWC 042050 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 150 PM MST Wed Jun 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS...A weather system moving through this afternoon will keep temperatures below normal with slight chances for showers and thunderstorms in the White Mountains ending this evening. Thereafter, expect dry and warming conditions into early next week with triple digit temperatures for Tucson westward by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Skies this afternoon are generally mostly sunny south and west of Tucson with partly cloudy skies mainly from Tucson north to northeastward. There is an upper low that is weakening/shearing out this afternoon as it pushes across the state. This is resulting in numerous showers and thunderstorms across the northern half of the state but for our forecast area, a mid level inversion is keeping cloud development limited. Still a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon mainly across northern Graham and Greenlee counties but dry elsewhere. A bit on the breezy side this afternoon with gusts around 20 mph. Starting Thursday and continuing into next week, our attention will turn to more typical June weather which is heat. While temperatures will be on an upward swing as heights/thicknesses increase across the area over the next few days, it won`t get too out of hand for this time of year peaking at around 3 to 5 degrees above normal on Sunday. The current forecast high in Tucson on Sunday is 104 degrees with the NBM showing a probability of 105 or greater at 20 percent. These temperatures at 3 to 5 degrees above normal put our area in minor to moderate HeatRisk, with the greatest coverage of moderate HeatRisk from Tucson eastward. Otherwise, expect continued dry conditions with some afternoon breezes and gusts each day. && .AVIATION...Valid through 06/00Z. FEW-SCT clouds 8k-12k ft AGL mainly from KTUS north and eastward thru 05/03Z then becoming SKC thru the rest of the valid period. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA will be possible over the White Mountains northeast of KSAD thru 05/02Z. Sfc winds westerly-southwesterly 8-14 kts with gusts to around 20 kts thru 05/03Z, becoming variable at 10 kts or less thereafter. Sfc winds become westerly-southwesterly again aft 05/18Z at 8-14 kts with gusts around 20 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A weather system will be passing through this afternoon leading to 15%-30% chance for showers and thunderstorms in northern Graham and Greenlee Counties into early this evening. Expect continued breezy winds especially east of Tucson this afternoon. Otherwise, winds will be 15 mph or less through the weekend with occasional afternoon gusts around 20 mph. A drying and warming trend starts Thursday and continues into the weekend. Min RH values will be back in the single digits for valley locations Thursday onward. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson