795
FXUS65 KTWC 310857
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
156 AM MST Fri Jan 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High temperatures will warm to near normal levels today, with well
above normal highs over the weekend into early next week. Near
record to record highs are expected Sunday through Tuesday.
Temperatures cool mid to late next week, but will still remain above
normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure aloft will build in rapidly across
the desert southwest from the west/southwest. This will lead to dry
conditions and a rapid warmup in temperatures. High temperatures
today will top out right around seasonal levels, with near record to
record high temperatures Sunday through Tuesday (see Climate Section
below). Highs will be in the 70s to near 80 degrees in the eastern
valleys and in the lower to mid 80s from Tucson westward. NBM
probabilities for tying record highs in Tucson are 18 percent
Sunday, 63% Monday and 75% Tuesday.

A storm system moves to our north across the Great Basin mid to late
next week, resulting in a flattening of the ridge and 5-10 degrees
of cooling. However, high temperatures will still be 6-10 degrees
above normal. This system will bring an increase in afternoon wind
speeds, with breezy conditions especially east of Tucson.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 01/12Z.
Clear skies/SKC conditions thru 31/23Z, then FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20k
ft AGL thru the remainder of the forecast period. SFC wind less than
12 kts thru the forecast period, favoring a NWLY through NELY
direction during the afternoon/early evening hours and variable in
direction at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure aloft will build in across the desert
southwest through early next week for warm and dry conditions. High
temperatures at some locations will approach record levels late this
weekend into early next week. 20-foot winds will be 15 mph or less
into early next week, with an increase in afternoon wind speeds mid
to late next week. High temperatures will be near seasonal levels
today, warming to 12-15 degrees above normal late this weekend and
early next week. Min RH values will be 12-20 percent in the valleys
and 15-25 percent in the mountains today, lowering to 7-17 percent
at all elevations this weekend into early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...Record or near record high temperatures Sunday through
Tuesday.

Date                    Feb 02        Feb 03        Feb 04
                     FCST RCD/YR   FCST RCD/YR   FCST RCD/YR
Tucson Intl Airport   80  82/1934   85  86/1925   84  84/1925
Ajo                   80  84/2021   85  84/2018   83  85/1963
Kitt Peak             65  67/1995   69  66/1995   68  75/1963
Organ Pipe Cactus     82  83/2003   86  88/1995   83  89/1963
Picacho Peak          75  79/2020   80  80/2000   82  82/2009
Safford Ag Station    76  80/2003   79  76/1963   82  75/1995
Sierra Vista FD       76  76/2018   80  73/2018   79  77/1980
Tombstone             75  78/2003   80  84/1963   80  79/1963
Willcox               75  78/2018   78  80/2018   80  79/1980

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Zell

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