233
FXUS65 KTWC 240902
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
202 AM MST Fri Jul 24 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Expect isolated thunderstorm activity south and west
of Tucson today as the combination of drier air and a ridge of
high pressure aloft move into the region. High temperatures
will be 8 to 12 degrees above normal and as a result an Extreme
Heat Warning is in effect today and Saturday. The upper level
pattern will then become more favorable for more widespread
thunderstorm activity Saturday into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure is currently centered just to the
east over southern New Mexico with PWAT values right around
normal for this time of year. Thunderstorm activity will be
subdued again today thanks to the proximity of the ridge. Hi-res
guidance shows isolated activity mostly south and west of
Tucson as well as the White Mountains. The main threat will be
outflow winds to 40 mph with maybe a couple gusts to 50 mph in
the stronger storms and locally heavy rainfall.

With the ridge almost directly overhead temperatures warm
further today and Saturday with highs running 8-12 degrees above
normal. The Tucson metro area has a 30-70 percent chance to hit
110 degrees both Friday and Saturday with areas further west
like Ajo and Organ Pipe National Monument seeing 15-30 percent
chances to hit 115 degrees Saturday. Areas south and east of
Tucson will see highs 100-105 degrees. Low temperatures will
also be on the warmer side generally above 80 degrees from
Tucson westward thanks in part to dewpoints around 60 degrees.
This will lead to widespread areas of Major HeatRisk and areas
of Extreme HeatRisk in the Safford area, Tucson metro, and
western/central Pima County. Because of this an Extreme Heat
Warning is in effect Friday and Saturday.

Saturday expect an uptick in thunderstorm chances and coverage
as the ridge moves northward and becomes centered near the Four
Corners. PWAT values will range from 1.2"-1.5" with plenty of
instability in the afternoon and evening. Models also show
modest mid level flow of 15-20 knots at 500 mb. Storms likely
form first over the higher terrain and sky islands during the
first part of the afternoon then move into the lower deserts
with storm coverage increasing late afternoon into the evening
from central Pima County eastward. Storms will be capable of
strong to severe wind gusts with blowing dust a possible issue
along I-10 in Pinal County. SPC has most of southeast Arizona
under a marginal risk for severe wind gusts Saturday. Heavy
rainfall will also be a threat with localized flash flooding
possible.

Mid-level winds weaken some Sunday into Monday, but still expect
daily thunderstorm activity with the high centered over the Four
Corners. Expect normal monsoon hazards from storms with strong
gusty outflow winds and locally heavy rainfall. High
temperatures also begin to decrease Sunday falling to around
normal Monday into Wednesday. Ensembles show a modest increase
in mid-level flow Tuesday and Wednesday which could lead to an
increased threat of strong to severe thunderstorms. Regardless
from Saturday into next week expect daily monsoon thunderstorm
activity with normal varying degrees of coverage and intensity
each day.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 24/12Z.
FEW-SCT clouds AOA 15k ft AGL this morning then FEW-SCT 8k-12k
ft AGL this afternoon and evening. Isolated TSRA will be
possible south and west of Tucson this afternoon and evening
with the likelihood of storms impacting a terminal low (10-20
percent). Surface winds light and terrain under 8 kts this
morning becoming northwest 5-10 kts this afternoon. Any
thunderstorm in the vicnity may produce a wind gust up to 35
kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A ridge of high pressure aloft will raise
temperatures 8 to 12 degrees above normal today and Saturday.
This trend will also reduce thunderstorm chances on Friday to
just isolated coverage in the afternoon and evening mainly south
and west of Tucson and in the White Mountains. Minimum relative
humidity values Friday and Saturday fall to 15-20 percent in
desert locations while winds overall will be light and under 12
mph. Deeper moisture is expected to return through the weekend
with increasing thunderstorm chances late Saturday afternoon
through the evening. Any thunderstorm may come with the threat
of strong gusty winds and heavy rain. Daily chances for
thunderstorms return in the following days into next week.
Minimum relative humidity values should rise as well Sunday
through the first half of next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Air Quality Alert from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MST this
evening for AZZ504.
Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MST
Saturday for AZZ501>509.

&&

$$

Hardin

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