276
FXUS65 KTWC 172155
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
255 PM MST Fri Jul 17 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms into this evening
with an elevated risk of flash flooding, especially across
those areas that received heavy rainfall Thursday. Otherwise,
chances for thunderstorms will continue into this weekend with
possible uptick in activity next Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Not surprising that thunderstorm activity today
has been much less than what occurred on Thursday. Atmosphere is
a little worked over but is still rather moist that any
thunderstorm will be capable of producing rain rates of >1"/hour
leading to continued threat of localized flash flooding. Very
low end severe threat with max gusts up to 45 mph. Activity will
be diminishing later this evening with some model guidance
indicating an area of showers/storms may develop overnight
between Phoenix & Tucson. The upper low currently over west
Texas will become a player in our forecast next week.

This weekend: Afternoon/evening storm activity mainly east and
south of Tucson.

Monday and Tuesday: Uptick in daily activity as the above
mentioned upper low that is currently over west Texas moves
across the area in a weakened state.

Wednesday and Friday: Daily chance of showers and thunderstorms
continue.

High temperatures will remain below normal thru Tuesday then
warm up to above normal by the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 19/00Z.
Widely scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue 18/07Z before slowly diminishing thru 18/13z. Heavy
rain, mountain obscurations, and erratic strong wind gusts of
30-40 kts possible with any storm, with ceilings mainly 9k-12k
feet. Outside of thunderstorms, surface winds generally under
10 kts. Chance of -SHRA/TS developing aft 18/19z. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Daily chances for thunderstorms will continue
each afternoon and evening through the next 7 days with day to
day variability. Minimum relative humidity 25-30 percent in the
lower desert locations and above 40 percent in the mountains
this week. Winds this week will remain mainly light and under 15
mph, though strong and erratic winds will be possible with any
thunderstorm.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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