302
FXUS65 KTWC 140838
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
138 AM MST Tue Oct 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A few patches of fog early this morning with drier
conditions returning today and continuing through the remainder of
the week. Temperatures will be below normal through Saturday, then
return to normal levels Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Southeast Arizona is transitioning out of the
active/wet period we`ve had since Friday into a pattern much more
reminiscent of what we are accustomed to getting deeper into Autumn.
The broader pattern continues to be dominated by a trough and
associated upper level low now moving down the north central
California coast with southwest flow across our forecast area. This
southwesterly flow is now starting to filter in drier conditions
from the west with PWAT values now under an inch. With abundant near
surface moisture and wet soils, we can`t rule out a few spots of fog
early this morning. Many locales will continue to see enough wind to
preclude fog but the most sheltered valleys especially in Cochise
County would be the most susceptible. Also, can`t rule out a spot
shower early this morning to the north and east of Tucson but that
will quickly fade as the day progresses.

With the aforementioned trough moving into the Great Basin and a
trough axis pushing through our area Wednesday into Thursday, the
first substantive/sustained push of significantly cooler
temperatures of the season will push into southeast Arizona. Highs
will be slightly below normal today but by Thursday we`re looking at
highs for all valleys and deserts in the 70s, or about 7 to 12
degrees below normal. Notably cool mornings as well with lows in the
50s in the deserts/valleys starting Wednesday with 40s creeping into
the picture starting Thursday south and east of Tucson. Temperatures
will moderate this weekend as the trough departs and some ridging
builds back in, returning to seasonable levels Sunday and Monday as
dry conditions continue.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 15/12Z. Generally SKC-SCT clouds 4-8k ft
AGL thu the valid period. Biggest concern is the potential for some
fog with IFR conditions between 13/10Z through about 13/16Z mainly
for KOLS/KDUG terminals. Otherwise, SFC winds mainly SELY/SLY at 7-
14 kts and gusts 20-25 kts this afternoon. SFC winds then diminish
to less than 10 kts aft 15/03Z. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Drier conditions move in today and continue into
next week. Minimum RH values will be at least 30+ percent in the
valley`s through Wednesday, with higher values in the mountains. Min
RH values lower into the 20-30 percent range in the valleys Thursday
into the weekend. 20-foot winds mainly 15 mph or less this week,
with occasional gusts to 20-25 mph. High temperatures will be below
normal into this weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson