874
FXUS65 KTWC 220831
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
130 AM MST Tue Apr 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and warm weather with some afternoon breezes and
occasional high clouds will dominate our weather this week. An
increase in afternoon breezes this weekend with cooler temperatures
by Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Very quiet weather regime for the next few days as our
pattern is dominated by dry west to southwesterly flow aloft.
Persistence forecast in the temperature department, with highs about
5 degrees above normal which translates to around 90 degrees in the
Tucson area and 80s in the higher elevation valleys south and east
of Tucson. For this weekend our attention will turn towards an
incoming trough that will help drop temperatures to seasonable
temperatures Sunday and even briefly below normal Monday before
warming back up thereafter. The ENS is more aggressive with the
amplitude of the trough compared to the GEFS/GEPS. In either
scenario we`re looking at increased afternoon winds with elevated
fire weather conditions Saturday and Sunday afternoon. We`ll have to
keep an eye on the trends since a stronger system would result in
winds coming in a bit higher. Moisture and precipitation chances
will remain well to our north with this system.


&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 23/12Z.
SKC conditions throughout the valid forecast period. SFC winds
variable at less than 10 kts this morning. SFC winds then become
WLY/SWLY aft 22/20Z at 8 to 12 kts with gusts to around 20 kts thru
25/02Z before diminishing to less than 10 kts again thru the end of
the valid period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warmer and drier weather with highs roughly 4-7
degrees above normal, occasional high clouds and breezy afternoons
through Friday as winds gust to around 20 mph. A weather system this
weekend will result in increased breezes resulting in elevated fire
weather conditions as sustained winds will be around 15 to 20 mph
with higher gusts. Min RH values will be in the single digits in the
lower elevations and teens in the mountains with poor overnight
recoveries through the forecast period.

&&

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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