547
FXUS65 KTWC 100915
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
215 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry weather persists over the next seven
days with well above normal temperatures each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Arizona remains on the eastern flank of high
pressure centered off California. Low-level thickness values rise
over the next 2-4 days while the ridge axis offshore moves over
the desert southwest Friday and Saturday. Thus expect a
continuation of unseasonably warm high temperatures across the
area with a few locals approaching record highs today through
Saturday. Check climate section below. Although the ridge axis
pushes east of the area on Sunday and a weak and dry upper level
trof passes through the state on Monday, highs will remain above
normal with another ridge building west of California next week.
Thus expected unseasonably warm temperatures to continue all of
next week with no significant precipitation expected for the next
10-12 days.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 11/12Z.
SKC. SFC winds vrbl and terrain driven less than 10 kts thru
10/17z and then again after 11/04z. At other times, SFC winds
WLY/NWLY 8-12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER....Dry conditions are expected the next 7 days
along with well above normal high temperatures. 20-foot winds
will generally be 15 mph or less and terrain driven throughout
the week. Minimum RH values in the valleys and mountains 16-26
percent with good overnight recoveries at least 35 percent in
the mountains and over 45 percent in the valleys for the week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record or near record high temperatures for December 10-12

Date                      Dec 10         Dec 11        Dec 12
                       FCST RCD/YR    FCST RCD/YR    FCST RCD/YR
Tucson Intl Airport     78  82/1950    79  83/1939    78  79/2004
Ajo                     79  84/1939    80  85/1950    80  83/1995
Organ Pipe Cactus       81  83/2015    82  83/1995    82  83/2010
Nogales Airport         78  81/2015    78  78/2023    78  81/2010

NBM probabilities to tie or break record highs for December 10-12

Date                     Dec 10          Dec 11        Dec 12
                        TIE/BREAK       TIE/BREAK     TIE/BREAK
Tucson Intl Airport       4%/ 0%          0%/ 0%       26%/15%
Ajo                       1%/ 0%          3%/ 0%        4%/ 0%
Organ Pipe Cactus        21%/17%         28%/19%       35%/13%
Nogales Airport           0%/ 0%         61%/37%        0%/ 0%

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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