252
FXUS65 KTWC 092127
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
227 PM MST Tue Dec 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry weather persists over the next seven days
with above normal temperatures each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION... Overall benign and non-impactful weather in the
forecast over the next seven days. This is thanks to the area of
high pressure continuing to be the dominate feature. High
temperatures will slowly warm up into late this week, with the
warmest days Thursday and Friday reaching near to record breaking
temperatures, more in the climate section below.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 11/00Z.
SKC. SFC winds WLY/NWLY 8-12 kts thru 10/03Z then again aft 10/18Z
thru the end of the period. Otherwise SFC winds remain under 10
kts and terrain driven. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER....Dry conditions are expected the next 7 days. A
warming trend continues through the week where high starting today
will run 8 to 15 degrees above normal. 20-foot winds will
generally be 15 mph or less and terrain driven throughout the
week. Minimum RH values in the valleys and mountains 16-26 percent
with good overnight recoveries at least 35 percent in the
mountains and over 45 percent in the valleys for the week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record or near record high temperatures for December 10-12

Date                      Dec 10         Dec 11        Dec 12
                       FCST RCD/YR    FCST RCD/YR    FCST RCD/YR
Tucson Intl Airport     79  82/1950    80  83/1939    78  79/2004
Ajo                     79  84/1939    80  85/1950    80  83/1995
Organ Pipe Cactus       81  83/2015    82  83/1995    82  83/2010

NBM probabilities to tie or break record highs for December 10-12

                         Dec 10          Dec 11        Dec 12
                        TIE/BREAK       TIE/BREAK     TIE/BREAK
Tucson Intl Airport       0%/ 0%          0%/ 0%       50%/25%
Ajo                       3%/ 0%          0%/ 0%        3%/ 0%
Organ Pipe Cactus        25%/14%         36%/21%       34%/20%

&&

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Tetrault

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