602
FXUS65 KTWC 042036
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
134 PM MST Fri Oct 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Unseasonably hot as dry conditions prevail into early
next week, with daily highs in Tucson ranging from 102 to 104
through Monday. Slight cooling (but still well above normal) mid to
late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure aloft will continue to dominate our
weather pattern into early next week with a continuation of record
high temperatures as highs range from 102 to 104 degrees in Tucson.
A bit of mid level moisture will result in some cumulus cloud
development, but dry conditions will prevail due to strong
subsidence inversion.

By the middle to late portions of next week, the ridge will break
down slightly as a weak trough undercuts the ridge. This will result
in some slight cooling, with mid to upper 90s for highs returning by
next Wednesday through Friday. This system will also allow for an
uptick in mid level moisture. No mentionable PoPs at this time but
we`ll be keeping an eye on it as the lower heights aloft may allow
for a few more build-ups.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 06/00Z.
FEW-SCT clouds 7k to 10k ft AGL. SFC winds WLY/NWLY 8-12 kts, then
becoming ELY/SELY less than 12 kts aft 05/03Z. WLY/NWLY winds less
than 12 kts return aft 05/20Z. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions continue through early next week.
20 ft winds will generally be terrain driven less than 10 mph.
Southeasterly winds resume early next week. Min RHs remain 8-15
percent for the lower elevations and low to mid 20s for the higher
elevations through early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...Abnormally warm temperatures for October will continue
through the weekend with some locations experiencing record to near
record high temperatures.

RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT 3 DAYS


DATE                         Oct 04           Oct 05           Oct 06
                          FCST RCD/YR      FCST RCD/YR      FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT       105 102/2020     103 101/2020     104 101/2023
AJO                       108 106/2020     108 109/2020     108 104/1917
KITT PEAK                  88  84/1979      87  84/1980      87  86/1980
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS         108 107/2020     107 107/2020     107 107/1987
PICACHO PEAK              103 102/2020     103 103/2020     103 105/2023
SAFFORD AG STATION         99  98/1953      97  98/2006      99  99/1999
SIERRA VISTA FD            95  94/2020      92  96/1917      94  95/2017
TOMBSTONE                  95  95/1917      93  97/2020      94 100/1917
WILLCOX                    95  97/2020      92  94/2020      94  97/2020

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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