Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
740 FXUS65 KTWC 072126 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 226 PM MST Sat Jun 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and hot conditions across southeastern Arizona through the coming week as high temperatures remain several degrees above normal. && .DISCUSSION... While amplified ridging takes place over the western CONUS, a dry eastern Pacific low will open and move into the desert southwest through early this coming week. The weak trough beneath the upper ridge will have little effect on temperatures with forecast highs through this period remaining just above normal. Afternoon breezes and some cloud build-ups (generally in the White Mountains Tuesday-Wednesday) should be the main impact as the upper level shortwave trough crosses the region. The next pattern shift likely arrives by next weekend with amplified flow featuring a Pacific Northwest trough and central CONUS ridge. With the thermal/pressure gradient sitting just to our northwest, any nudging of the broad pattern will change southeastern Arizona`s temperature potential. Wouldn`t expect a major temperature shift with this potential however as the region will still be sitting under positive height anomalies, the difference will just be if SE Arizona sees above normal or well above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION...Valid through 09/00Z. Clear skies through the forecast period. Light and terrain driven wind tonight. Surface winds become west to northwesterly 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts after 08/18Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot and dry through the coming week. Single digit minimum relative humidities through Monday, then mountain locations see a modest increase with 12-20 percent minimum values Tuesday through much of the remainder of the week. A weak weather disturbance will slowly track across portions of Southeast Arizona the first half of the week resulting in a few afternoon build-ups with the possibility of a dry thunderstorm near the White Mountains Tuesday and Wednesday. 20-foot winds generally 15 mph or less, with occasional afternoon/early evening gusts to around 25 mph due to strong surface heating. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Public...Edwards Aviation...Edwards Fire Weather....Edwards Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson