Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
439 FXUS65 KTWC 012206 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 306 PM MST Fri Aug 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS...A drying trend with continued above normal temperatures through this weekend. Still enough moisture for isolated thunderstorms from Sells eastward today, then south and east of Tucson Saturday with dry air overtaking all of southeast Arizona Sunday. Thereafter, below normal monsoonal activity is expected next week. Extreme heat will continue through the weekend and perhaps continuing through much of next week as temperatures remain well above normal. && .DISCUSSION...Isolated shower/thunderstorm activity into this evening with the area in low-grade monsoon pattern which will continue into Monday. Isolated storms on Sunday and Monday mainly near the Intl border. Hints of some more moisture next week for a little more areal coverage of daily thunderstorms. However that is uncertain as a very strong upper level high will be building over the area next week bringing much hotter temperatures Wednesday to Friday time frame than what will be occurring this weekend into early next week. Current Extreme Heat Warning was extended out to Tuesday while an Extreme Heat Watch was hoisted for Wednesday through Friday with HeatRisk in the Major to Extreme category. All-time August record highs will be threatened Wednesday and or Thursday next week. See climate section for a listing of all-time August record highs. && .AVIATION...Valid through 03/00Z. SCT clouds 8-12k ft AGL with isold -SHRA/-TSRA thru 02/03Z. Skies then clearing overnight. SCT clouds 8-12k ft AGL with isold -SHRA/-TSRA aft 02/18z, mainly S and E of KTUS thru end of valid pd. Winds generally below 12 kts away from thunderstorm activity, with occasional afternoon gusts to 20 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Isolated thunderstorms into this evening, then drying this weekend with slight chances of showers and thunderstorms mainly south and east of Tucson Saturday with dry conditions areawide Sunday. Overall winds are expected to remain under 15 mph with occasional afternoon gustiness, however strong erratic winds are possible with any thunderstorm. Hot temperatures will continue into next week with a low grade monsoon pattern early next week. && .CLIMATE...All-time August record highs and date. Ajo 118 on August 28, 2023 Organ Pipe Cactus 116 on August 5, 1995 Picacho Peak 114 on August 28, 1998 Tucson Intl airport 112 on August 1, 1993 Safford (town) 110 on August 16, 2024 Willcox 108 on August 1, 2020 Nogales (town) 107 on August 5, 2023 Douglas airport 106 on August 5, 2023 Sierra Vista 105 on August 6, 2023 && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Tuesday for AZZ501>507-509- 510-515. Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Friday evening for AZZ501>509-515. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson