Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
268 FXUS65 KTWC 252103 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 203 PM MST Fri Jul 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS...High temperatures heating up into this weekend bringing widespread Moderate HeatRisk with isolated areas of Major HeatRisk as the monsoon takes a break. Moisture returns to the area next week for a return to typical monsoon activity. && .KEY MESSAGES... -Dry conditions and hot temperatures increasing through the weekend, with the warmest day on Sunday. -Moderate HeatRisk for the valleys with Major HeatRisk for the Upper Gila River Valley this weekend. -Moisture begins to move eastward beginning Sunday to the far eastern areas, spreading into Tucson Monday, then area wide by Tuesday bringing back daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION...Temperatures will be increasing each day through the weekend. Our moisture has eroded way and moved out to the east over the last several days. We are near the bottom of the moisture dip where it will stay around through the weekend. The increase sunshine will aid in the drying process, bringing our relative humidities down to the upper single digits in the afternoon. Stay hydrated and practice heat safety this weekend. Ensemble models show our moisture moving back into the region starting late Sunday in the east-southeast Cochise County. The deeper monsoon moisture (greater than an inch) will move across Southeast Arizona Monday to Tuesday timeframe. The median ensemble precipitable water will be 1.3 inches by Wednesday...nearly a 0.75 inch jump from what we have today (0.57 inches). This will provide daily chances for rain showers and thunderstorms through the new week. The highest chances and better coverage will be Tuesday through Thursday. Temperatures will come down several degrees and staying around seasonal normals. && .AVIATION...Valid through 27/00Z. SKC for much of the valid pd. The exception will be FEW cumulus clouds 10k-12k ft AGL until 26/02z mnly S-SE of KTUS and the occasional passing high clouds during the forecast period. SFC winds mainly under 12 kts with very localized gusts to 20 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Heating up into this weekend with dry conditions areawide. Moisture returns to the area early next week for a return to typical monsoon activity. Afternoon winds will remain southwest to west at 10-15 mph, with occasional afternoon gusts at or above 25 mph. Min RHs will be in the 10 percent range to upper single digits in the lower elevations with the mountains around 20 percent through Monday. Poor overnight recoveries is also expected through Monday morning. Monsoon moisture will return late Sunday starting in eastern Cochise County, expanding west by Monday, resulting in higher min RHs of 20-30 percent with good overnight recoveries of at least 45 percent to upwards of 70 percent. Plus, there will be daily chances for wetting rain showers and thunderstorms through the new week. We are returning to our monsoonal pattern. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Strongman Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson