109
FXUS65 KTWC 242001
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
101 PM MST Sun Nov 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High temperatures will continue to be above normal
this week with dry conditions. Breezy winds are likely today and
again Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...This is a week where most are anticipating a visit
from the Great Gobbler, reflective and appreciative for the
positives that are sprinkled within the framework of their lives.
As a meteorologist, we sometimes feast upon the exciting variation
of a weather forecast we issue, embracing the intrigue of what
brought us into this career. Dont get me wrong, although
conditions will be very pleasant and non-impactful this week
across all of Southeast Arizona, it will lack much variation over
the next seven days. A week adrift in a sea of near uniformity.

Why is this the case you might ask? The simple answer is that
there is a broad ridge of high pressure positioned across Mexico
that continues to have its grip on Southeast Arizona. In general
this will continue to result in higher heights/thicknesses that
will keep temperatures above normal over the next seven days.
Afternoon temperatures will typically remain in the 70s to near 80 for
most valley locations this week. The warmest day will be Tuesday,
with a 75 percent chance that KTUS will meet or exceed 80
degrees. This is of little surprise as we are coming off of 85
degree highs the past two days in the Tucson Metro. The ensemble
members that feed the 24/13Z NBM show little variation amongst
one another with regards to high temperatures thru Thursday, with
only a 2-5 degree range between the 25th and 75th percentile.

However, there will be challenges to the overall pattern impacting
Southeast Arizona this week. The strong upper low that has
significantly impacted the Pacific Northwest over the last week
continues to break down. The upper low off the coast of WA/OR
this morning begins to split over the next 24-48 hours as a strong
ridge of high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska begins to flop over
top. This will allow one piece of the upper low to track SE into
the Great Basin Tuesday and Wednesday, with another piece moving
SW under the ridge in the Eastern Pacific. A modest moisture tap
ahead of the feature moving into the Great Basin will bring shower
activity to our north Wednesday into Thursday, with probabilities
sagging as far south as the White Mountains Wednesday night and
Wednesday. Confidence is low that we will see much of any
precipitation, but it should bring about a few breezes as this
system approaches Tuesday.

The low trapped under the ridge in the EPAC closes off Thursday
off the coast of California. Both the deterministic GFS and ECMWF
are both trying to eject this weakening upper-low due east across
Arizona next weekend. Experience tells me that this may be a bit
too quick and aggressive. When this pattern happens, we usually
see minor pieces of the upper low get sheared out as it opens into
a zonal flow and we see a only trickle of the low eject across us
over a longer period of time. This typically results in
significant mid and high clouds across Southeast Arizona with
sprinkles here and there. I guess this classifies as a little
intrigue and variation from the stable pattern we are currently
experiencing, but not by much.

In any event, weather will not impact any outdoor activities this
week across Southeast Arizona. You can enjoy and appreciate the
beautiful weather this Thanksgiving holiday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 26/00Z.
BKN-OVC clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru the forecast period. Breezy
surface winds from the southwest-to-west this afternoon into the
early evening hours. Southeastern locations such as KDUG-KOLS will
see 10-15 kt sustained winds with gusts up to 25 kts, with
lighter winds at KTUS. Winds become light and terrain driven again
after 25/03Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and dry this afternoon with breezy
southwest to westerly this afternoon in the 10 to 15 mph range
with gusts up to 25 mph in Graham, Greenlee, and Cochise counties.
Minimum relative humidities will range from 10 to 15 percent this
afternoon. Temperatures remain warmer than normal this week, but
a modest increase in humidity is expected this week compared to
today, especially Wednesday through Friday where minimum relative
humidities will be in the 20 to 35 percent range. Winds should be
breezy again on Wednesday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson