401
FXUS65 KTWC 032028
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
128 PM MST Tue Jun 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Expect below normal temperatures through Wednesday.
A weather system will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon for the White Mountains. Dry
and warming conditions in second half of the work week with triple
digit temperatures for Tucson westward by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Partly cloudy skies this afternoon across southeast
Arizona as moisture levels remain well above normal for this time of
year with a PWAT of 0.98" on the 18Z KTWC sounding. While there is
adequate moisture for cloud build-ups, warming in the mid levels,
most notable on the sounding with a strong inversion at 700 mb will
impede vertical growth of clouds. The one exception to this will be
in the White Mountains where a chance of showers and thunderstorms
will continue through the afternoon. Latest WV satellite imagery
shows an upper low just off the southern California coast that will
shift eastward tonight through Wednesday, moving through Arizona and
shearing out as it does so. The combination of the lingering
moisture and this system will keep continued shower and thunderstorm
chances across the northern half of the state with the White
Mountains on the southern fringes of shower and thunderstorm chances
Wednesday. The rest of southeast Arizona will remain dry with
temperatures warming a couple of degrees compared to today which
will still be about 3 to 5 degrees below normal. There will be a few
wind gusts around 20 mph Wednesday afternoon, especially east of
Tucson.

For Thursday and beyond, the main weather story will be a transition
to above normal temperatures as dry southwesterly flow resumes with
heights/thicknesses gradually rising as a strong area of high
pressure aloft builds to our east and southeast from Texas into
northern Mexico. Expect triple digits to return to Tucson by Friday
with the expectation for highs approaching 105 degrees on Sunday,
which is forecast to be the warmest day of the forecast period. The
latest NBM gives a probability of 42% on Sunday of a high of 105
degrees or warmer Sunday. HeatRisk values this weekend will be at
minor to moderate levels. Expect afternoon breezes/gusts each day
due to strong daytime heating.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 05/00Z.
FEW-SCT 6k-10k ft AGL into this evening with additional SCT-BKN high
clouds moving in after 04/00Z and continuing through the rest of the
forecast period. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA will be possible over the White
Mountains northeast of KSAD into early this evening and once again
Wednesday afternoon. Sfc winds westerly 8-12 kts thru 04/03Z, then
variable at less than 10 kts thru 04/18Z. Wly/Swly sfc winds at 8-14
kts with gusts to around 20 kts aft 04/18Z thru the end of the
forecast period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A weather system will be passing through into
Wednesday leading to 15%-30% chance for showers and thunderstorms in
northern Graham and Greenlee Counties. This system will also bring
breezy winds mainly east of Tucson Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise,
winds will be 15 mph or less through the weekend with occasional
afternoon gusts. A drying and warming trend will return by Thursday
into the weekend. Min RH values will be back in the single digits
for valley locations Thursday onward.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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