947
FXUS65 KTWC 232137
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
237 PM MST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High temperatures will continue to be well above normal
today. Temperatures begin to lower Sunday into the middle of next
week, with near to slightly above normal readings by late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Temperatures are about the same as this time
yesterday under passing high clouds. A ridge is centered over the
Great Plains with a closed low entering the Pacific Northwest. The
storm track stays north of the area through the middle of next
week putting southern Arizona in zonal flow aloft. Heights
decrease some leading to a small cooldown through next week.
However, high temperatures will still be 5-10 degrees above
normal. In fact, by Tuesday Tucson could see highs in the low 80s
again. Wednesday ensembles bring a weak shortwave through the Four
Corners region. For southeast Arizona this system will be dry,
rain chances will stay in northern Arizona including the White
Mountains Wednesday afternoon. The main effect on sensible
weather will be slightly cooler temperatures Thursday into
Saturday, around normal or a couple degrees above, and breezy
winds Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 25/00Z.
BKN-OVC clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru the forecast period. SFC wind
10 kts or less, favoring a SWLY thru NWLY direction during the
afternoon/early evening hours and variable in direction at other
times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will continue through early next
week. There will then be a slight chance of showers mainly across
the White Mountains Wednesday. High temperatures will be around
12 degrees above normal today, lowering some but still 5-10
degrees above normal Sunday through Wednesday, and then 1-3
degrees above normal by late next week. Min RH values will be 8-15
percent in the valleys and 10-20 percent in the mountains through
Sunday. Min RH values will then increase to 20-30 percent early
to mid next week. 20-foot winds will be 15 mph or less and terrain
driven at most locations through Tuesday of next week. Elevated
southwest to west winds of 15-20 mph and gusts to near 30 mph are
expected Sunday across portions of Cochise County, with the
potential for more widespread elevated west to northwest winds
Wednesday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Hardin

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