907
FXUS65 KTWC 260934
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
234 AM MST Sat Apr 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry, warm, and breezy this afternoon. Breezy winds
continue into Sunday with a slight cool down into early next week.
Temperatures rebound by the end of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery shows a fairly strong closed low
moving onshore into California. This low will track eastward over
the weekend with its center staying north of Arizona in Nevada and
Utah. The main impact of this system will be breezy winds today
and Sunday as it tightens the pressure gradient and momentum
mixes down to the surface. This combined with relative humidities
below 10 percent and very dry fuels will lead to elevated fire
weather concerns today and critical fire weather conditions
tomorrow. Today breezy winds will be more widespread, but just
below critical thresholds. Tomorrow winds will be stronger with
speeds 15-25 mph and gusts to 45 mph, but concentrated from Tucson
eastward with the strongest winds along the AZ/NM border. A Red
Flag Warning is in effect Sunday for areas south and east of
Tucson.

Temperatures will be a few degrees below normal Sunday and remain
that way through Tuesday thanks to a shortwave moving through
Arizona in the wake of the weekend system keeping 500 mb height
anomalies negative. Temperatures then rebound as ridging builds
into the region late in the week. Tucson could see 90 degree highs
again by Thursday, continuing into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 27/12Z.
SKC through the forecast period. Light winds generally under 10
kts this morning becoming southwest 12-18 kts with gusts to 30
kts late this morning through the early afternoon. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...An approaching weather system will increase winds
resulting in near critical to critical fire weather conditions
through today and Sunday. Today, near critical fire weather
conditions are expected across Cochise county and eastern Santa
Cruz county as well as at exposed ridgetops.

For Sunday, a Red Flag Warning is in effect from 10 am to 8 pm
including eastern portions of zone 151 along with zones 152, 153,
and 154. This area includes the Sky Islands of Southeast Arizona,
Cochise, Graham, Greenlee, Santa Cruz, and eastern portions of
Pinal and Pima counties. Critical fire weather conditions are
forecast Sunday with southwest winds of 15-25 mph and gusts to 45
mph. Although cooler temperatures are forecast Sunday into Monday,
moisture will be lacking and minimum relative humidities should
remain in the 6 to 10 percent range. Breezy conditions will linger
Monday mainly in Cochise County, but should remain below critical
levels.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ151>154.

&&

$$

Hardin

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