Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
900 FXUS65 KTWC 052045 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 145 PM MST Wed Feb 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably warm temperatures will gradually trend downward with temperatures reaching near normal by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Southwesterly flow aloft will continue today as a trough remains in place over the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, the broad ridge that brought record to near-record heat to southeast Arizona is now centered over the east CONUS and will break down as it continues to shift east. The sudden shift in the upper air pattern from substantial ridging to more of a quasi-zonal flow will result in afternoon high temperatures today to moderate by 2-8 degrees from yesterday. The cooling should be just enough to spare Tucson from putting today`s record high of 85 set in 1963 in jeopardy. However, positive height anomalies will remain through Friday with high temperatures still forecast to be above normal by 6 to 12 degrees heading into the weekend. As the jet stream continues to nudge southward, breezy conditions can be anticipated each afternoon, especially to the south and east of Tucson where gusts to around 25 mph can be expected tomorrow afternoon. Looking ahead into the weekend and beyond, high temperatures will gradually decrease to near normal as a trough is progged to dig into the Great Basin this weekend. Ensemble and cluster analyses continue to depict agreement that not much moisture is anticipated with this upcoming system, so confidence remains fairly high that dry conditions can be expected through the upcoming weekend. Ensembles begin to diverge in the middle of next week where one possible solution points to a follow-up trough reinforcing chances for additional cooling and perhaps measurable precipitation. Stay tuned! && .AVIATION... Valid through 07/00Z SKC conditions expected throughout the forecast period. SFC winds will be northwesterly KTUS and northwestward and southwesterly southeast of KTUS at KOLS and KDUG at 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 15 kts this afternoon. After 06/04Z winds will be light and variable. Starting around 06/19Z, and persisting through the rest of this forecast period, winds will increase to 8 to 12 kts from the west with gusts to 20 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... Well above normal temperatures today. Breezy south to southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph are expected this afternoon across much of southeastern Arizona, especially in areas exposed to southwest flow and ridge tops. Winds will be from the west to southwest tomorrow at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Tomorrow, temperatures remain above normal with minimum relative humidity values of 8 to 14 percent. These dry conditions remain through the weekend, with slightly higher values in far western Pima county. Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm through the remainder of the week. The National Fire Danger Rating System puts areas of southern Arizona, portions of Santa Cruz, Cochise, eastern Pima and southern Graham counties, in a High fire danger risk. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Malarkey/ DVS Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson