565
FXUS65 KTWC 052050
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
150 PM MST Sat Sep 5 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms each afternoon and
evening into early next week, with a potentially more active
period later next week. The main threat will be heavy rainfall
leading to localized flash flooding. High temperatures will
will fluctuate between near normal and a few degrees below
normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Coverage of storms remain isolated at this hour, but could
become more scattered in nature along the International Border.
Main threats with storms today is lightning, brief heavy rain,
and gusty winds to 35 mph or so. Any activity should stay
confined to the Santa Catalina/Rincon Mtns and south of Tucson.

The rest of this weekend into early next week continue to look
limited, with the best chances south and east of Tucson, where
the best instability is. With the above normal moisture, locally
heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding continue to be the
primary impacts with these storms.

As we move into next week, especially by the mid to late week,
moisture/instability builds a bit more. Flow turns more from
the SE/ESE, which could bring an upswing in daily showers/storms.
The tropics remain active in the EastPac, with another tropical
system becoming likely south of Baja and off the central
Mexican coast. We will keep an eye on this as we move into next
week.

Temperatures will be within a couple of degrees of normal through
Wednesday, then dropping to below normal levels late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH 20Z SUNDAY/...
VFR with FEW/SCT clouds between 7-10 k ft agl today. Iso to
perhaps sct showers/storms along International Birder with VCSH
and possibly VCTS for KOLS. Activity quickly wanes after sunset.
SFC winds less than 12 kts, with the exception of any outflows
around convection. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Expect daily isolated showers and thunderstorms into early week,
before becoming more scattered the rest of the week. Heavy
rainfall leading to flash flooding will be the main threat.
Temperatures will be around normal to a few degrees below normal
into early next week. Minimum relative humidity values mainly 20
to 45 percent in the valleys and 30 to 60 percent in the mountains
over the next week. Winds will generally remain less than 15 mph
and terrain driven through the week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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