519
FXUS65 KTWC 102027
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
127 PM MST Tue Mar 10 2026

.SYNOPSIS...A weather system will exit the area this afternoon with
lingering scattered showers and thunderstorms along with high
elevation mountain snow ending area-wide by early evening. Below
normal temperatures today will be replaced by near normal
temperatures Wednesday and then temperatures well above normal
through the weekend into early next week as dry conditions prevail.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The upper low that we`ve seemingly been talking about
forever is finally on its way out. It`s currently located over
western Chihuahua and moving eastward with just some residual mainly
light scattered showers from Tucson eastward. These will diminish
and end area-wide by early evening. Meanwhile, increased sunshine
for western areas this afternoon, though temperatures will remain
below normal this afternoon. We`ll have to keep an eye on fog
potential for eastern valleys tonight but confidence is too low to
include in the forecast as winds just a tad on the high side for
typical fog potential.

Dry weather will prevail starting Wednesday through the end of the
forecast period as ridging builds in aloft. Temperatures will
initially warm Wednesday to near normal levels for this time of
year. As heights and thickness values increase the remainder of the
work week, high temperatures from Tucson westward will bump up into
the upper 80s to lower 90s with 80s for valleys south and east of
Tucson. These values are 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

A weather system moving across the central and northern Rockies this
weekend won`t have much influence here locally with temperatures
still similar to Thursday and Friday but a few afternoon breezes are
expected Saturday and Sunday especially east of Tucson.

The more significant heat is expected next week as very strong
ridging builds across the Desert Southwest. Ensembles are in very
good agreement and the NBM is showing increasing likelihood of
monthly March records being broken. In Tucson, the record high for
March is 99 degrees and the NBM shows a greater than 70 percent
chance of 100 or warmer next Wednesday through Friday. High
temperatures for our area will be 20 to 25 degrees above normal with
widespread moderate to locally major HeatRisk expected. We have many
visitors to our region this time of year that are not acclimated or
accustomed to triple digit heat. While low temperatures in the 60s
are expected, the core period of daytime heat from late morning
through the afternoon hours will be dangerous for strenuous outdoor
activities that are popular this time of year such as hiking next
Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 12/00Z. SCT-BKN clouds 5-9k ft AGL with
scattered -SHRA diminishing area-wide by around 11/00Z. Skies
clearing this evening with SKC then prevailing through the end of
the valid period. SFC winds WLY/NWLY 10-20 kts thru 11/03Z with
higher gusts especially near KSAD this afternoon. SFC winds then
diminish to less than 10 kts aft 11/03Z through 11/19Z, then become
NLY/NWLY 6-12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A weather system exiting the area today will result
in any leftover showers ending by this evening. Drier weather will
then prevail starting Wednesday. High temperatures will be near
normal Wednesday, then quickly rise to 10 to 15 degrees above normal
by the end of the week. Heads up: There is a potential for hot
temperatures near the century mark by the middle to end of next week
across the lower deserts of Southeast Arizona. West to northwest
winds 10 to 15 mph this afternoon with some higher gusts across
Graham and Greenlee counties. Otherwise, normal diurnally driven
winds less than 15 mph will return to the area Wednesday through
this weekend, although a few afternoon gusts around 25 mph are
expected across Graham/Greenlee/Cochise Counties this weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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