Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
247 FXUS65 KTWC 022056 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 156 PM MST Tue Jun 2 2026 .SYNOPSIS...High temperatures near normal for much of the next 7 days. Moisture also makes its way into the region Wednesday and Thursday leading to thunderstorm chances both days, then dry Friday into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Southeast Arizona is currently under mostly sunny skies, with a few cumulus cloud buildups, mainly in the Sky Islands and the White Mountains. As we get into the afternoon and evening, there are chances (10-15%) for showers and thunderstorms in the White Mountains. This is thanks to the high pressure currently centered over northern Texas panhandle/western Oklahoma and the low pressure centered off the coast of southern California tightening the pressure gradient and sending moisture over New Mexico westward. This eastward mid-level moisture creep will continue into tomorrow, allowing for PWs in Graham, Greenlee, and Cochise counties to increase to 0.7 to 1.0 inches. Shower and thunderstorm chances (20-60%) are on track for tomorrow afternoon and evening, with the highest chances in the mountains. Tucson still looks to be on the edge of the highest moisture, and therefore is on the lower end of storm chances tomorrow. The main hazards expected with these storms are strong outflow winds, possible blowing dust, and lightning. The air below the moisture plume near the surface is still fairly dry (and will be drier the farther west of the main plume of moisture will go), so still continuing to look at a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. The moisture lingers into Thursday, allowing for additional chances (20-50%) for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, with the highest chances in the Sky Islands and White Mountains. The low pressure will begin to move south and east through the area Thursday, introducing shortwave high pressure and drying our the area Friday into the weekend. Outside of storm chances, the next seven days will have near normal temperatures with general afternoon breeziness. && .AVIATION...Valid through 04/00Z. FEW-SCT clouds AOA 15k ft AGL thru much of valid pd. Slight chance of -SHRA/TS mainly NE of KSAD btwn 02/20z and 03/01z. Slight chance of -SHRA/TS from KTUS/KOLS line eastward 03/20Z thru the end of the period. SFC winds WLY/NWLY 8-12 kts with ocnl gusts up to 20 kts thru 03/02 and again from KTUS/KOLS line westward aft 03/18Z thru the end of the period. From KTUS/KOLS eastward SFC winds ELY/SELY at 8-12 kts. Winds around storms can be gusty and erratic. Otherwise SFC winds remain under 10 kts and terrain driven. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... High temperatures will be around normal for the next 7 days. Moisture will be gradually increasing across the eastern portions of southeast Arizona over the next 3 days. Initial chance of showers and thunderstorms today will be across northern Greenlee county. For Wednesday, the chances of showers and thunderstorms expand west across Graham and Cochise counties. Eastern Pima and Santa Cruz county will be on the western edge of this moisture but there is a low end chance that these areas may see storms Wednesday afternoon. Lingering moisture remains across the eastern areas Thursday before moving out of the area on Friday. Min RH values will be in the 6-18 percent range in the valleys and in the 12-25 percent range in the mountains through this week. 20-foot winds will generally be below 15 mph through this week except for east to southeast Wednesday, mainly for areas east of Tucson with a few higher gusts. Outflow winds up to 30 to 40 mph possible near any storms that develop this week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ JT Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson