534
FXUS65 KTWC 262205
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
305 PM MST Sun Jul 26 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Expect daily afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms this week with day to day variability in coverage
and strength. High temperatures will be 2-5 degrees above
normal through the middle of this week then warm to 6-10 degrees
above normal late this week into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Another quiet start to the afternoon convection
wise with only a few CBs, as of 3 pm, over the eastern mountains.
PWAT values range widely across the area this afternoon from
around 1" near the AZ/NM border to 2" over far western Pima
county. Main area of concern between 4-8 pm will be along or
near the Intl border of Santa Cruz and Cochise counties for
strong gusty winds and brief heavy rain.

Monday: Not a whole lot of change in PWAT values from today.
Main area of concern in the initial round of storms (some of
which will be severe with heavy rain) will be along or near the
Intl border from about San Miguel east to Douglas, with outflow
interactions spreading the threat of storms north. There is the
potential for convection to develop during the overnight hours
into Tuesday morning.

Tuesday: At this time, models are suggesting that storm activity
will be mainly east and south of Tucson during the afternoon and
evening hours.

Highs Monday and Tuesday will run 3 to 5 degrees above normal.

Wednesday thru Sunday: Day-to-day variability of daily chances
of showers and thunderstorms as the calender turns from July to
August. Major HeatRisk returns to the area Thursday thru
Saturday as highs heat back up to 8-10 degrees above normal.
Heat products likely will be hoisted by later shifts.

8-14 day outlooks (August 3-9)
Temperature: Likely above normal (58-62% chance)
Precipitation: Likely above normal (49%-59% chance)

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 28/00Z.
ISOLD -SHRA/TS mainly S of KTUS thru 27/03z, then SCTD -SHRA/TS
mainly E and S of KTUS aft 27/20z. Any thunderstorm may produce
wind gusts in excess of 40 kts. SFC winds NWLY 5-10 kts with
ocnl gusts thru 27/03z and then again aft 27/19z. At other times
variable less than 8 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will remain above normal this
week. Expect daily chances of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms with day-to-day variability on coverage of storms.
Any thunderstorm will bring a threat of severe, erratic wind
gusts as well as brief heavy rainfall and an isolated threat of
flash flooding. Minimum relative humidity values will be 20-40
percent in the lower deserts through at least mid-week. Winds
this weekend will mainly be light and under 12 mph outside of
thunderstorms.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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