153
FXUS65 KTWC 042052
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
152 PM MST Fri Apr 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Unsettled conditions today and Saturday as a weather
system moves across the area. This system will bring scattered
light precipitation to the area. Next week a strong ridge of high
pressure will move into the area. This will bring a significant
warm-up in afternoon temperatures through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Current radar shows scattered light showers across
the majority of southeast Arizona. Looking out the window a lot of
the precipitation is evaporating before it hits the ground but
some rain is reaching the ground as evidenced by area rain
gauges. Most gauges show a few hundredths with a couple up to a
tenth of an inch. Expect this shower activity to continue into the
early evening as a longwave trough, currently centered over
central Arizona, moves through. SPC mesoanalysis shows around 100
J/kg of MLCAPE, which could lead to stronger storms producing a
lightning strike or two along with graupel. A few lightning
strikes have been observed in Sonora, but none in Arizona so far.
Snow levels are around 6000 feet with Sky Islands expected to see
up to an inch at mountain peaks and 2"-4" in the White Mountains.
Hi-res models show shower activity beginning to wane this evening
and ceasing overnight. High temperatures will be cool, around 20
degrees below normal.

Saturday the center of the low will be in Texas but a weak
shortwave on its backside and surface backdoor cold front will
lead to another round of scattered light showers mainly from
Tucson eastward. Showers are expected to start late morning and
continue into the afternoon. Any rain and snow amounts will again
be very light. Temperatures will be warmer, around 10 degrees
below normal.

In the wake of the trough a strong ridge will build into the
Southwest, which will quickly increase temperatures next week.
Sunday will be the last day below normal before temperatures warm
to a few degrees above normal Monday, then 10-15 degrees above
normal thereafter. 90 degree highs could return to Tucson by
Tuesday with a chance at 100 degrees on Friday. The current NBM
probability to hit 100 degrees at the Tucson airport is 40
percent Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 06/00Z.
Expect BKN clouds between 4k-8k ft AGL through 05/03Z becoming
FEW-SCT overnight. Saturday late morning into the afternoon clouds
will be SCT-BKN 4k-8k ft AGL from Tucson eastward. Scattered -SHRA
will be possible area wide through 05/02Z, then begin to
dissipate. Expect another round of -SHRA from Tucson eastward late
tomorrow morning and afternoon. Very brief MVFR conditions will be
possible in -SHRA today. SFC winds NW 8-12 kts becoming variable
less than 8 kts overnight. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A weather system will slowly move across the state
through Saturday, bringing a chance of light precipitation this
afternoon and evening with lingering shower chances from Tucson
eastward Saturday. Thereafter, a strong ridge of high pressure
will move into the area bringing with it a significant warm-up in
afternoon temperatures begining this weekend and persisting
through next week. Daily SFC winds will see afternoon gustiness.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Hardin

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