527
FXUS65 KTWC 040935
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
235 AM MST Thu Jun 4 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Chance of showers and thunderstorms today east and
south of Tucson then dry Friday into next week. High
temperatures near normal for much of the next 7 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Morning satellite imagery showed debris clouds
from last nights convection is slowly decreasing across the
forecast area. At the surface, dewpoints ranged from 40s and
lower 50s east of an Eloy to Nogales line while west of the line
values were mostly in the 20s. PWAT values, per satellite,
ranged 0.45" to 0.85".

Today will be a little less active versus yesterday with the
chance of afternoon/evening showers/storms being E and S of
Tucson. Main threat from storms will be gusty outflow winds,
blowing dust and brief moderate to heavy rain. Can`t rule out a
severe wind gust, especially across southern Graham/Greenlee
counties. Once again made adjustments to PoPs from the baseline
NBM.

Moisture pushes out of the area on Friday, but enough around for
a slight chance of storms across the White mountains.

The weekend into next week will be dry with high temperatures
around normal the area between trofiness to the W/NW and
high pressure to the E/SE.

8-14 day outlooks (June 11-17)
Temperature: Likely above normal (54%-56% chance)
Precipitation: Near normal (36% chance)

&&

.AVIATION... Valid through 05/12Z.
Debris cloud cover across 15k ft AGL will diminish thru 04/16z
Aft 04/18z, cloud bases of 10k-12k ft AGL dvlpg with ISOLD to
SCT -SHRA/TS mnly E and S of KTUS. Wind gusts up to 45 kts psbl
near t-storms.Otherwise SFC winds ELY/SELY 8-12 kts thru 04/16z
then WLY 8-12 kts with ocnl gusts to 20 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Chance of showers and thunderstorms east and
south of Tucson today and then across the White mountains on
Friday. Dry this weekend into next week. Min RH values will be
in the 6-18 percent range in the valleys and in the 12-25
percent range in the mountains through this week. 20-foot
winds will be the east to southeast this morning, west to
southwest this afternoon with outflow winds up to 45 mph
possible near any storms that develop. After today 20-foot
winds generally be below 15 mph into the weekend. High
temperatures will be around normal for the next 7 days.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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