Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
294 FXUS65 KTWC 240830 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 130 AM MST Sat May 24 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Near normal afternoon temperatures across all of Southeast Arizona through the first half of next week, then gradual warming the second half of the work week. && .DISCUSSION...Quiet weather into next week with warm, dry and occasionally breezy conditions anticipated across all of Southeast Arizona. A little cooling is in store for today as thickness values decrease in response to a dry trough of low pressure developing across the southern half of California. Expect similar breeziness today compared to yesterday with brief near critical fire weather conditions possible late this afternoon. This trough will eventually track east across the Great Basin Sunday into Monday with another weak dry upper-low developing across southern California/southwest Arizona Tuesday. We had been advertising a shortwave ridge axis developing across the southern Rockies/New Mexico the past few days that would import some mid- level moisture into the far eastern portions of the CWA next week. The position of the upper-low Tuesday is east of previous runs which would initially shift the mid-level theta-e ridge slightly east. In general, this would keep the moisture at-bay in southern New Mexico through Wednesday. Split-flow in the Eastern Pacific Wednesday and Thursday will then result in yet another dry upper-low to develop off the coast of Southern California and Northern Baja Thursday and Friday. This offshore feature will allow the shortwave ridge axis to drift west into Southeast Arizona late next week. This would essentially draw the mid-level moisture east into the far eastern portions of SE Arizona. The combination of this moisture and the dry sub- cloud layer may result in dry elevated thunderstorms with the potential for gusty and erratic outflows near the evaporating downdrafts, especially Saturday. && .AVIATION...Valid through 25/12Z. SCT-BKN high clouds AOA 20k ft AGL through the period. SFC winds light and terrain driven less than 10 kts thru the late morning, then SWLY/WLY 12-18 kts with gusts up to 30 kts thru 25/03Z. SFC wind becoming light and terrain driven less than 10 kts overnight. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Breezy southwest winds 10-15 mph with gusts to 30 mph today into early this evening with minimum RH values around 5 percent...producing brief near critical thresholds. Breezy afternoon conditions will persist every afternoon into next week due to strong surface heating. Otherwise, single digit min RH values at all elevations will persist over the next week, with poor overnight recoveries. Although confidence remains low at this time, there is the potential for some mid-level moisture to move into far eastern areas (along the Arizona and New Mexico state line) by the end of next week into next weekend. This may lead to some afternoon buildups and/or isolated dry lightning strikes as early as Thursday, but more likely Friday into next weekend. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson