570
FXUS65 KTWC 072015
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
115 PM MST Mon Apr 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...This week will see a strong ridge of high pressure
move into the area. This will bring a significant warm-up in
afternoon temperatures with some record highs across the region
expected Thursday through Saturday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Main story this week will be the rising heat across
Southeast Arizona. High pressure will be building each day and
reaching its peak by Friday. This will bring temperatures 10 to
nearly 18 degrees above normal and record breaking temperatures
for locales. Tucson can reach its first 100 degree day by Friday
and breaking the earliest 100 degree day on record. This is April
19th in 1989. The normal first 100 degree is May 18th. Even
morning low temperatures will be warmer than normal by 4 to 8
degrees through the week. Practice good heat mitigation habits
and check on your friends, family, neighbors, and your pets.

Later in the week, the ensemble models have a troughy synoptic
pattern by Saturday to Sunday period. The cluster analysis shows
the uncertainty of the trough speed and amplitude over the
western states at this point. The GEFS leans heavily (70% of
members) for the system to stay north of Southeast Arizona where
the other ensemble members have a spread of solutions for of the
passing over Arizona; there are minor differences in the
amplitude of the trough and timing. Either way, the ensembles shows that
breezes will return by the weekend. These breezes will also
elevated fire weather concerns due to our warming trend and dry
conditions today and through the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 09/00Z.
SKC. SFC winds northwesterly 6-11 kts thru 08/03z and again after
08/18Z. There could be a strong gust or two in the late
afternoons. In between and in the overnight hours, winds will
generally be variable at 10 kts or less. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions and warming temperatures will be
the story this week as a strong ridge of high pressure builds over
the area. Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal with
records by Friday. Min RH values will be in the single digits
each day with overnight recoveries in the teens to low twenties.
Winds will generally follow diurnal trends of less than 15 mph with
afternoon gustiness due to strong surface heating. By the
weekend, a passing weather system will increase southwesterly wind
speeds up to 15 to 20 mph across the region and overall elevating
fire weather conditions.


&&

.CLIMATE...Record or near record high temperatures are forecast
Thursday thru Saturday.

Date                    Apr 10         Apr 11         Apr 12
                     FCST RCD/YR    FCST RCD/YR    FCST RCD/YR
Tucson Intl Airport   97  97/2023   100  99/2023    98  96/1988
Ajo                   99 101/1989   102 100/2023    97 100/1936
Kitt Peak             79  77/1989    83  79/1989    80  75/1988
Organ Pipe Cactus    100  99/2023   102  99/2023    97  98/1985
Picacho Peak          94 100/2023    98 100/2023    96  97/2008
Safford Ag Station    95  95/1989    97  95/2023    97  93/1960
Sierra Vista          89  89/1989    92  89/2018    90  90/2018
Tombstone             89  90/1960    92  91/2018    91  91/2018
Willcox               90  90/1972    93  91/1946    92  92/1946

Looking at the records above, Tucson flirted with the earliest
first 100 degree high exactly two years ago.

The average temperature for the first six days of April for
Tucson is running 7 degrees BELOW normal. After the next 7 days,
the average temperature for April will be slightly over 1 degree
ABOVE normal. Or when looking at rankings to date, going from
33rd coolest to 19th warmest. Quite an upcoming change.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Strongman


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