161
FXUS65 KTWC 222056
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
156 PM MST Fri Nov 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure aloft will result in well above normal
high temperatures through Saturday. Temperatures begin to cool
Sunday into early next week, with near to slightly below normal
readings mid to late next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure continues over the region today and
waning by the end of the weekend. Temperatures will be elevated on
the warmer than normal side for the rest of today and even
tomorrow.

The Pacific Northwest low pressure system will continue to move
slowly inland this weekend. This will cause our heights to lower
by Sunday and creating zonal flow in the upper levels.
Temperatures will come to near normal by the start of the new week
with a few southwesterly-westerly winds around 10-15 mph and some
strong gusts. The zonal flow will bring in moisture in the higher
levels from the Pacific Ocean where cloud coverage will increase
by Sunday and lasting through most of the new week.

By late Tuesday to Wednesday, the low pressure center in the
Pacific Northwest will come into the interior in the form of a
trough. This trough will stay to our north and making it fairly
dry for the Southeast Arizona. The ensemble models all lean on the
dry side with a few members having some precipitation reaching
the ground. The White Mountains and the northern Sky Islands have
the better chance for precipitation even though it is 10-15%
chance. Plus, there will be some breezes on Wednesday and then
cooler temperatures moving in by Thanksgiving Day. Temperatures
will be slightly below normal on Thanksgiving and on Friday.


&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 24/00Z.
Clear skies to SCT clouds at or above 20k ft AGL through the
forecast period. SFC wind 10 kts or less, favoring a WLY/NWLY
direction during the afternoon/early evening hours and variable in
direction at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will continue through the upcoming
weekend. There will then be a slight chance of showers mainly across
the northeast portions of the forecast area late Tuesday through
early Thursday of next week. High temperatures will be 8-12 degrees
above normal through Saturday, lowering back to 4-7 degrees above
normal early next week and then slightly below normal by late next
week. Min RH values will be 8-15 percent in the valleys and 10-20
percent in the mountains through the weekend. Min RH values will
then increase 8-15 percent early to mid next week. 20-foot winds
will be 15 mph or less and terrain driven at most locations through
the middle of next week, with the potential for elevated southwest
to west winds Sunday and again Wednesday across portions of Cochise
County.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Strongman


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