896
FXUS65 KTWC 261611
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
911 AM MST Sat Jul 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS....High temperatures heating up this weekend bringing
widespread Moderate HeatRisk with isolated areas of Major HeatRisk
as the monsoon takes a break. Moisture returns to the area next
week for daily chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&


.UPDATE...Water Vapor imagery has a trough over California and our
high center is out to the far east, bringing southwesterly to
westerly flow across the region today. This will keep the area dry
with high clouds rolling throughout the day. Even our
temperatures will climb up to above normal today and even
tomorrow. Therefore, it will be Minor to Moderate HeatRisk across
the region. Plus, we will have the typical late afternoon to early
evening gustiness.

Otherwise, no changes to the forecast for today. Monsoon moisture
will be returning by the end of the weekend.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 250 AM MST Sat Jul 26 2025/

Warm to hot temperatures this weekend into Monday with widespread
Moderate and localized Major HeatRisk Sunday and Monday. The
atmosphere remains on the very dry side for late July with values
between 0.50" and 0.65" today. Higher moisture values move into
the far eastern zones on Sunday for a slight chance of
showers/storms near the AZ/NM border. PWATs next week increase
into the 1.0" to 1.5" range which will bring daily chances of
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 27/18Z.
SKC to SCT cirrus clouds AOA 20k ft AGL for much of the valid pd.
SFC winds mainly under 12 kts with very localized gusts to 20
kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Heating up into this weekend with dry conditions
areawide. Moisture returns to the area early next week for a
return to typical monsoon activity. Afternoon winds will remain
southwest to west at 10-15 mph, with occasional afternoon gusts
at or above 25 mph. Min RHs will be in the 10 percent range to
upper single digits in the lower elevations with the mountains
around 20 percent through Monday. Poor overnight recoveries is
also expected through Monday morning. Monsoon moisture will
return late Sunday starting in eastern Cochise County, expanding
west by Monday, resulting in higher min RHs of 20-30 percent with
good overnight recoveries of at least 45 percent to upwards of 70
percent. Plus, there will be daily chances for wetting rain
showers and thunderstorms through the new week.

&&

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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