579
FXUS65 KTWC 052132
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
232 PM MST Fri Jun 5 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Afternoon high temperatures will remain near to
slightly above normal through the weekend into next week. There
is a slight chance of thunderstorms along and near the Arizona
and New Mexico state line today. These storms will be capable of
producing wind gusts to 35 mph and localized blowing dust,
especially along Interstate 10 through the San Simon valley this
afternoon and early this evening. Otherwise, breezy conditions
are expected each afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The upper pattern early this afternoon is defined
by an upper-low centered over Chihuahua Mexico and an upper
ridge in the Eastern pacific near 24.5N/127.0W, with a ridge
axis extending into NE Arizona. This pattern results in a
decent NNE/SSW deformation axis aloft over SW NM. The latest
GOES blended precipitable water imagery indicated the moisture
that resided across our eastern zones yesterday have since
moved/eroded east into New Mexico, with PWAT values between 0.60
inches along the AZ/NM state line this afternoon up to 0.75
inches in SW NM. The combination of this lift/forcing aloft
with the mid-level moisture available to the east of our neck of
the woods should result in scattered thunderstorms development
across extreme SW NM this afternoon, with storm motions pushing
them SSW toward the AZ/NM state-line late this afternoon into
the early evening hours. I manually added a slight chance of
thunderstorms into our far eastern zones as the inherited NBM
PoPs were in the low single digits. However, I don`t think we
will see much in the way of precipitation in our CWA though. I
think we have a decent shot of seeing strong and organized
outflow winds (35+ kts) make their way into SE Graham/ERN
Cochise. This is supported by the 05/12Z HREF which indicated a
30-50 percent neighborhood probability of outflow winds in
excess of 30+ kts along the border between 05/22Z this
afternoon and 06/04Z this evening.

Otherwise, the upper ridge across the Desert Southwest gets
shunted east as a mean trough develops across the western
states this weekend, with the trough axis eventually tracking
east through Southeast Arizona the first half of next week. This
should result in stronger southwest surface winds Tuesday and
possibly Wednesday of next week, thus increasing the potential
for critical fire weather conditions. Unfortunately, it still
looks like there is a large variance between ensemble members of
the NBM grand ensemble with regards to the strength and timing
of the Day 4 and 5 trough axis.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 07/00Z. SCT-BKN 10k-12k feet AGL
mainly near and east of KSAD-KOLS through the early evening,
clearing overnight. Increasing high clouds AOA 20-25k feet AGL
move in from the west during the day Saturday. Surface winds
northwest 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts this afternoon.
Stronger northwest winds in the Gila River Valley with KSAD
17-20 kts with gusts up to 32 kts through 06/03Z, diminishing
thereafter. A few stronger gusts to 30-35 kts with localized
VSBY 3-5SM in BLDU will be possible this afternoon and early
this evening from storms along and east of the Arizona/New
Mexico state line.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Afternoon high temperatures will remain near to
slightly above normal through the weekend into next week. There
is a slight chance of thunderstorms along and near the Arizona
and New Mexico state line today. These storms will be capable of
producing wind gusts to 35 mph and localized blowing dust,
especially along Interstate 10 through the San Simon and Gila
River valleys this afternoon into early this evening.

Minimum relative humidity values in the single digits across
most lower elevation locations with 10-15 percent values in the
mountains. Winds this afternoon and Saturday will be northwesterly
10-15 mph across much of Southeast Arizona, with stronger winds
anticipated across the Gila River Valley (18-24 mph with gusts
up to 35 mph) into the early evening. This wind and low
relative humidity combination will bring periods of locally
critical fire weather conditions. Otherwise, winds Sunday
onwards will turn to the southwest with winds 12-18 mph and
gusts up to 30 mph each afternoon through much of next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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