146
FXUS65 KTWC 242135
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
235 PM MST Sat May 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Near normal afternoon temperatures across all of
Southeast Arizona through the first half of next week, then
gradual warming the second half of the work week with afternoon
breeziness each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An area of low pressure is currently spinning over
southern Nevada, keeping Southeastern Arizona under dry southwest
flow aloft. This system will move across northern Arizona
tomorrow, keeping the afternoon winds westerly at 10-15 mph with
gusts up to 30 mph. With the continued dry conditions, this in
combination with the afternoon breeziness will continue to produce
near critical fire weather conditions.

After this system passes, a shortwave moves through the area
Tuesday. The latest ensemble runs continue to show any potential
moisture being held off until the end of next week. So the main
impact with this system will be gusty afternoon winds, but will
not be as strong as today and tomorrow.

A third low pressure system allows mid-level moisture to move
into eastern parts of the area. Depending on where and how long
this low pressure sits off the Baja California coast will
determine if/when any moisture sets into place. Should this
moisture set up, late next week into the weekend there is a
potential for dry lightning since the low-levels will continue to
remain dry.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 26/00Z.
SCT-BKN high clouds AOA 20k ft AGL through the period. SFC winds
SWLY/WLY 12-18 kts with gusts up to 30 kts thru 25/03Z and again
aft 25/18Z thru the end of the period. Otherwise SFC wind remains
light and terrain driven less than 10 kts. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Breezy southwest winds 10-15 mph with gusts to 30
mph today into early this evening with minimum RH values around 5
percent...producing brief near critical thresholds. Breezy afternoon
conditions will persist every afternoon into next week due to
strong surface heating. Otherwise, single digit min RH values at
all elevations will persist over the next week, with poor
overnight recoveries.

Although confidence remains low at this time, there is the
potential for some mid-level moisture to move into far eastern
areas (along the Arizona and New Mexico state line) by the end of
next week into next weekend. This may lead to some afternoon
buildups and/or isolated dry lightning strikes as early as Thursday,
but more likely Friday into next weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Tetrault

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson