983
FXUS65 KTWC 200836
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
136 AM MST Sun Apr 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A chilly start this morning with lows near freezing
in the eastern valleys. High temperatures begin to ramp up quickly
with approximately 10 degrees of warming between today and Monday.
Dry and warm conditions the rest of the week into next weekend, with
above normal temperatures expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...We`re entering a much more benign weather pattern for
this forecast period. The upper low that brought our cooler weather
Friday and Saturday is now pushing into west Texas with dry
northwesterly flow for us on the backside of the system. Chilly
temperatures this morning will give way to a warming trend this
afternoon as highs bump up to near seasonal normals from Tucson
westward while areas east of Tucson will still be about 3 to 6
degrees below normal. Dry westerly zonal flow will be dominating our
weather this week with temperatures warming Monday to about 3 to 6
degrees above normal and remaining there for the rest of the week.
Given the storm track will remain well to our north for this week,
winds will be lighter with just a few afternoon breezes/gusts. An
uptick in breezes may occur next weekend as troughiness moves into
the west coast and tightens the pressure gradient.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 22/00Z. SKC through the valid forecast
period. SFC winds mainly less than 10 kts thru the forecast period,
favoring WLY/NWLY direction in the afternoon and early evening hours
and more variable at other times. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A warming trend commences today after a cool start
as highs return to near normal levels. From Monday onward, above
normal temperatures mostly about 3 to 6 degrees above normal.  Dry
conditions will prevail through the week with minimum humidity
values in the single digits across the valleys and teens in the
mountains. Wind speeds will be less than 15 mph with the exception
of some afternoon gustiness due to daytime heating.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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