Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
996 FXUS65 KTWC 101943 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 1243 PM MST Sun Aug 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Thunderstorm chances are forecast each afternoon and evening through the coming week, though there will be day to day variability in these chances. High temperatures will generally remain above normal through the coming week. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Daily thunderstorm chances each afternoon with daily variability in the location of impacts - Impacts possible with any strong thunderstorms include strong gusty winds, blowing dust, and localized heavy rain producing flash flooding - Warm temperatures will remain running 3-7 degrees above normal, resulting in widespread Moderate HeatRisk through at least Thursday && .DISCUSSION... The 18Z sounding shows a fairly weak cap (-43 CIN), weak mean winds (2-5 knots), decent PWAT 1.38", MUCAPE of 1488 J/kg, and marginal at best DCAPE of 1015 J/kg. Latest satellite trends indicate increasing mid-level cloud cover across eastern Pima County and a weakening remnant MCV over northern Sonora. With latest information, slightly less concerned for severe level winds today, though the chances (10-30%) still exist for a strong thunderstorm to produce near severe level (58+ mph) winds today mainly in the Arivaca-Nogales area. There is still a concern for flooding impacts with any storms that form and produce 1-2" precip rates since they will be slow moving. As the long-wave trough currently stretched across much of the Central Plains continues to shift east, the ridge currently centered across CA will broaden and shift back over to the southwest. This will allow upper-level flow to shift from the north-northwest to more of the northeast through the middle of the week. During this upper-level change, decent moisture (PW 1.0-1.5") will remain, continuing to keep daily shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast through the next 7 days. Typical with monsoon activity, daily variability in location of the impacts are expected. Temperatures will remain above seasonal normals by 3-6 degrees through the work week resulting in widespread Moderate HeatRisk. The NBM box & whisker plots indicate some signal for slightly `cooler` temperatures by Friday into next weekend, with temperatures dropping a 2-4 degrees, resulting in mostly Minor HeatRisk. && .AVIATION...Valid through 12/00Z. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of southeast AZ today, mainly south and east of Tucson. KOLS and KDUG have the best chances of being impacted by thunderstorms this afternoon between 21-03Z. With any thunderstorms expect variable and gusty winds to around 30-40 knots. Otherwise, surface winds should remain below 15 knots. SCT to BKN aoa 8-10 Kft. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will remain several degrees above normal through the coming week. Daily chances for thunderstorms and wetting rains through the week with daily variability in coverage and intensity. Min RHs will generally be around 15-25 percent in the lower elevations and 20-35+ percent in the mountains. Winds will generally be less than 15 mph with typical afternoon gusts up to 20 mph into the new week, though stronger northwesterly winds possible in the Gila River Valley through Monday with afternoon gusts up to 35 mph. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Discussion...Peters Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson